Is Francis Maude right – the problem’s the party not the leader? One of the most quoted pieces of research from the 2005 General Election was that the public public view of a particular policy dropped considerably when those interviewed were told that this is what the Tories wanted. In an echo of that this morning in Guardian the Tory Chairman, Francis Maude says that the public are still unpersuaded by his party but asserts they they have taken to…
Is Cameron’s soundbite giving publicity to a bunch of unknowns? These three men are the leaders of a grouping that in the heady days days of 2004 look set to make a big impact on UK politics. Their party, UKIP, had come third in the UK Euro Elections in June 2004 beating the Lib Dems and coming only six per cent behind Labour on votes. Three months later they beat the Tories into for the third place slot in the…
Betting on a leader’s survival is usually profitable As general rule the best option in the political “How long will they survive” markets is to bet that leaders will go on longer than current perceptions for that’s what they usually do. Politicians who become leaders of their parties are generally pretty tough and resilient. You don’t get to that rung on the ladder without those qualities and it is easy to underestimate them. The power of incumbency is very strong…
Labour back into the lead & party supporters want him to stay This month’s poll from Populus in the Times, puts Labour back into the lead for the first time since January. Its shares are with comparisons on last month CON 34%(-1): LAB 36%(+1): LD 21%(+1) – so a two point fall-off in the Tory position has seen one point jumps for Labour and the Lib Dems. This is in line with other recent polls which have seen the Tory…
Are there 45 MPs who will sign up for the Chancellor to be challenged? The rules governing Labour’s leadership election will give Tony Blair at least two votes when he finally decides to step down from the job or he’s forced out. The first will be as an MP who have a third of the influence in the electoral college. The second will be as an ordinary constituency member and he’ll have a possible third vote if he still belongs…
A novice punter on out how it works I’ve enjoyed reading PB.C much longer than I’ve been placing bets on elections, so until a few months ago I was mystified by some of the phrases and odds given in the posts. When I made serious effort to find out what it all meant I was able to get a lot more from the posts and comments, so hopefully I can now return the favour to others. Rather than laboriously go…
ICM has 42% saying he should go now With relations between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown said to have reached new lows an ICM poll in the Rupert Murdoch-owned News of the World has 42% saying that the Prime Minister should step down immediatly. A further 15% say he should “go within a year” and a further 13% want him out before the next General Election. Only 21% think that Tony Blair should stay on until after the General Election….
How much are the local by-election results a pointer? It’s often been said that local by-elections only affect a maximum of 1,000 people at any one time (and even less than that if turnout is poor) and is only of any real use to the people who study local elections for national electoral implications. Well, do excuse me if I sound like a rather set in my way Victorian gentleman but “that view is arrant poppycock!”. Local by-elections give a…