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Is this the Achilles heel of the Chancellor’s leadership ambitions? FACT: Since December 6th 2005, the date of Cameron’s election, there has not been a single poll where the Chancellor was doing better than his party when the question of “Who would you vote for if Gordon Brown was Labour leader?” was asked. Similarly I cannot find a single poll in three years before Cameron became Tory leader where the Chancellor was doing worse than his party when the same…

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Bad news for Blair – even worse for Brown As predicted here first thing this morning the May Populus survey for tomorrow’s Times has some pretty sensational figures showing one of the biggest turnarounds ever from a pollster that weights samples by declared past vote. The figures are with changes on April: CON 38 (+4): LAB 30 (-6): LD 20(-1). This is the biggest Tory lead ever recorded by the pollster. What is spectacular about this survey is that it…

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Will tomorrow’s survey have bad news for Blair? If the Populus monthly poll for the Times is following its normal schedule then the May survey should be out tomorrow. The interviews will have been taking place over the weekend while all the speculation and talk of a Labour civil war was dominating the air waves. Often surveys that take place in such a heated atmosphere produce extraordinary results and the Times has a reputation for running its polls big. So…

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Making sense of Thursday night It is now possible to make sense of Thursday’s local election results. The projected vote shares for the three main parties, according to Rallings and Thrasher in the Sunday Times, were CON 39%, LAB 26%, LD 25%. This analysis covers more wards than that carried out for the BBC on election night, and produces a much more plausible figure for minor parties and independents (10%, as opposed to the BBC’s perennial 6-7%). It can therefore…

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What’s behind the increase in turnout? With Camp Brown stepping up the pressure on Lucky Tony the primary focus this post-election weekend is the Labour succession. Will the the not so coded calls for a “transition time-table” have any impact and bring the almost inevitable Brown leadership a little bit closer? It’s beginning to look that way and I’ve now closed down my betting position that Blair would make it until the end of next year. The big long-term question…

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Big winnings for those who acted fast I hope that many PBC regulars had a profitable Thursday for in the fortnight before the election there were what proved to be some amazing betting bargains to be had – all of them reported by contributors on the site. The best bet seems to have been that 10/1 that was available for a short time on the Lib Dems taking control of Richmond. This tightened sharply to 7/2 as PBC punters piled…

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Is the Cabinet re-shuffle enough? With breathtaking timing Lucky Tony has managed to dillute the bad overnight election news with his cabinet re-shuffle. From a situation where all the focus would be on yesterday’s 3rd place on votes and nearly 300 seat losses the bulletins tonight are mostly about his changes. But will this be enough to calm his party critics and allow Lucky Tony to complete most of his third term? Like him or loathe him you have to…

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