Andrea’s Italian General Election Commentary

Andrea’s Italian General Election Commentary

Will Berlusconi have more time to entertain Tony? Italian electoral law forbids the publishing of opinion polls up to a fortnight in advance of polling day, which has effect from last Saturday. This means that we can only speculate as to how events since then have affected the standing of the parties.’Parties will try to spin the figures of their own internal polling, but naturally only the positive ones. Thanks to a strong start of the campaign, Berlusconi managed to…

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Sean Fear’s local council election commentary

Sean Fear’s local council election commentary

WHAT OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? The modern Liberal revival began in local government, with the capture of Finchley in the late 1950s. Decade by decade, Liberal (and then Alliance) support on local councils grew steadily, until by the mid 1990s, the Liberal Democrats had 50 local councils under their control, and more local councillors than the Conservatives. Typically, Liberal Democrats gains came in areas of long-standing Conservative support (although there were exceptions like Liverpool, Tower Hamlets and Southwark). Recently, the…

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Tories 2 points down with YouGov

Tories 2 points down with YouGov

But the attacks on Gordon Brown appear to be hitting home In the first voting intention survey by any pollster since Gordon Brown’s budget nine days ago YouGov’s March survey for the Daily Telegraph has Cameron’s Conservatives and Labour level pegging with the Lib Dems down one point. The shares are with changes on the last YouGov poll twelve days ago are CON 36 (-2): LAB 36 (+1): LD 18 (-1). Note that the comparisons are with the last YouGov…

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Is my 40-1 long-shot going to make it?

Is my 40-1 long-shot going to make it?

Mark Warner 2nd favourite for the Democratic nomination Last November I placed as much money as the bookies would allow me on the ex-Governor of Virginia, Mark Warner, to win the 2008 Presidential Election at the then price of 40/1. At the time I wrote here that I had been very much influenced by the comments on the site by Ben – one of PB.C most long-standing contributors who follows the American scene very closely. While there’s been a lot…

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The favourites to succeed Ming?

The favourites to succeed Ming?

Betting opens on the NEXT Lib Dem leader…really! Less than four weeks after Sir Menzies Campbell was elected leader of the Liberal Democrats betting has opened on who will replace him. The four in the picture – Chris Huhne (5/1), Nick Clegg (4/6) , David Laws (4/1) and Ed Davey (5/1) are heading the early prices. Next in line are Mike Moore and Sarah Teather on 14/1. Julia Goldsworthy is 20/1, Mark Oaten 25/1, while Simon Hughes and Vince Cable…

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Has Tony outsmarted them again?

Has Tony outsmarted them again?

No apologies – it’s back to the Blair non-departure With Tony Blair’s departure date comments in Australia continuing to cause ructions and Labour MPs calling for in that well-worn cliche a “smooth transition” I’ve returned to the political betting markets with a few hundred pounds to bet on the Prime Minister surviving. The 3/1 that’s available on him staying beyond the end of next year looks great value. There are several reasons:- Labour party rules make a challenge to the…

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The Monday Guest Slot – Stephen Tall

The Monday Guest Slot – Stephen Tall

Dealing with the new politics – will Labour be third on May 4th? It’s 80 days since Charles Kennedy quit as Liberal Democrat leader, plunging the party into its January mensis horribilis. Opinion poll ratings dipped as low as 13%, the Daily Telegraph splashed its front page with a report that the party was in ‘freefall’, and several over-hyped and under-sourced rumours alleged three Lib Dem MPs were poised to defect to David Cameron’s shiny new Tories. Then came the…

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Two years of Politicalbetting.com

Two years of Politicalbetting.com

Tomorrow marks the second birthday of PB.C. Thanks to everybody for their support and for making the site what it is. Thanks to my son Robert for handling and maintaining the technical side and his fiance, Lucille for the design. Thanks to Philip Grant (Book Value and one of the first people ever to comment here) for being the stand-in editor and thanks to those who are helping keep PB.C a seven day operation by providing articles and commentaries. Thanks…

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