The Monday Guest Slot – Andrew Saywell

The Monday Guest Slot – Andrew Saywell

Is Tory progress inevitably bad news for the Lib Dems? The primary focus of any general election prediction or analysis is on the fortunes of the two main parties. However an often overlooked aspect of a general election result is that of the electoral relationship between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats. Since the 1950s it can be argued that the performance of these two parties have been intertwined to such an extent that their electoral performance is greatly dependent…

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Can Rumsfeld hold on?

Can Rumsfeld hold on?

It’s 3-1 that he’ll be out by the end of the year There’s a lively market developing on the US-focused Tradesports betting exchange on whether Donald Rumsfeld will hold onto his job beyond the end of the year. With six retired US generals calling for him to go because of the way he has handled Iraq the issue of the Defence Secretary’s future has now been taken up by Democratic Presidential hopeful Bill Richardson. The Pentagon PR machine is fighting…

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2nd favourite named by “honours for cash” fundraiser

2nd favourite named by “honours for cash” fundraiser

Could covert recordings rule Miliband out of the race? The Sunday Times has published further transcripts of the conversations between the city academies fundraiser, Des Smith and its reporter who was posing as an intermediary. The paper, which back in January first broke the “cash for honours” scandal, reveals that Smith recommended that the second favourite to become the next Labour leader, David Miliband, should be should be tagetted. At the time the Miliband price was 7/1. It’s now eased…

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Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

HOW RELIABLE IS THE NEWSNIGHT PREDICTION ? A week ago, Newsnight produced an analysis of local by-election results by Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings, which received considerable publicity. Studying this year’s local by-election results, they suggested that the national equivalent vote shares which the parties would win on May 4th would be CON 33: LD 29%: LAB 28 (compared to 34%, 27%, and 33% respectively in 2002). On that basis, Labour could expect to lose about 100 seats nationally, the…

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How Labour voters are 23% more likely to be polled

How Labour voters are 23% more likely to be polled

Introducing PB.C monitoring on poll sample distortion Here’s a statistic that everybody interested in political opinion polls should take into account: If you make a completely random unsolicited phone call and manage to persuade the person answering to tell you how they voted in the General Election there’s a 44.7% chance that it will be Labour. This compares, of course, with the 36.2% of voters who did actually vote for the party last May – so the proportion telling pollsters…

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Could “Cash for Peerages” bring down Blair?

Could “Cash for Peerages” bring down Blair?

Have honours been abused to boost a controversial education policy? Until the arrest yesterday of the City Academies fundraiser, Des Smith, I thought that Tony Blair would escape from the “cash for peerages” row relatively unscathed. After all the Prime Minister has survived an awful lot, from Bernie Ecclestone through to David Kelly and the Hutton hearings, that those legendary Teflon qualities would see him through almost anything. Now I am not so sure. For abusing the honours system to…

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Prodi betting continues as the confusion goes on

Prodi betting continues as the confusion goes on

More than £150k in matched bets since Tuesday morning The thousands of punters who flocked to put money on the Italian General Election on Monday night might have to wait some time for their winnings. The refusal of Silvio Berlusconi to accept the result and demand further scrutiny of contested ballot papers could leave the result in limbo for weeks. Just like in the aftermath of the Bush-Gore race for the White House in 2000 punters will have to be…

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The Milburn Candidature: Punters underwhelmed

The Milburn Candidature: Punters underwhelmed

..and Gordon says he hasn’t been told the date Until the succession issue has been resolved almost all senior Labour figures are going to have to negotiate themselves through fierce leadership-related questioning whenever they agree to be interviewed. And even after they have left the studios their every word will be subject to intense scrutiny by journalists looking for a story – particularly on quiet news days. Even Gordon Brown is not immune – all reporters seemed to want to…

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