Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

THE TORIES REGAIN METROLAND Few parts of the Country were traditionally more solid for the Conservatives than John Betjeman’s Metroland, the leafy suburbs that sprung up in the Twenties and Thirties in West, and North West London, as the Underground pushed out beyond London into the Countryside and connected towns and villages like Harrow, Hendon, Finchley and Wembley to the Metropolis. Most seats in this region delivered five figure Tory majorities at general elections with monotonous regularity, and delivered scores…

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Can Ming withstand the media barrage?

Can Ming withstand the media barrage?

How important is a good PMQ performance? Amidst all the big political stories at the moment there’s a special focus on Ming Campbell who, if you read some columnists, is on the critical list. After going through the trauma of ousting Charles Kennedy Ming finds himself under the media microscope every Wednesday when, as Lib Dem leader, he is allowed a maximum of two questions at Prime Minister’s Questions. The scrutiny has been going on since his lacklustre performance at…

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Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Will new polls confirm whether the turmoil is still causing damage? When the May Populus survey showing a Labour deficit of 8% came out last week I urged caution because the survey had been taken against a backcloth of heated speculation and talk of a Labour civil war. Often surveys that take place in such a charged atmosphere, I noted, produce extraordinary results. We should get a better measure of the current state of public opinion over the next eight…

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Why Gordon will never be leader

Why Gordon will never be leader

Has the Chancellor blown it through his natural prudence? In years to come will Gordon Brown look back on the second Wednesday of May 2006 as the time when he blew his best ever chance to become Labour leader and Prime Minister? Will he recall May 10th – just a week ago today when all the eyes were on him – as the moment he should have moved and sought to oust Blair? Will he remember the stony silence of…

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How many more of these has Tony got in his back pocket?

How many more of these has Tony got in his back pocket?

Why I’m betting again that Blair will survive Yet another week goes by and Tony Blair is still there doing what he’s always been brilliant at when things get rough – changing the media agenda. After the carefully concerted Gordon Brown barrage in the immediate aftermath of the local election results, a brace of poor opinion polls and probably the toughest PMQs of his nine year tenure Lucky Tony is just ploughing on finding other things to dominate the headlines….

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Why does Cameron gets a boost with Populus?

Why does Cameron gets a boost with Populus?

Is it all down to how the question is asked? With a Labour leadership contesting looking more imminent there’s a lot more attention being put on polls showing how people would vote if the leading contender, Gordon Brown, was up against David Cameron. Surpisingly there’s a big difference between the main pollsters. Taking all the surveys when this was asked since the new Tory leader took office these are the average changes in the CON-LAB margin comparing Cameron-Brown against the…

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ICM: 52% say “it’s wrong” that a Scot should be PM

ICM: 52% say “it’s wrong” that a Scot should be PM

New poll finds anti-Scottish bias south of the border With two of the possible contenders or the coming Labour leadership battle being Scottish – Gordon Brown and John Reid – there are some worrying findings for the party in an an ICM poll carried out for today’s “Politics Show” on BBC1. When asked if they thought it “wrong” that in the era of the Scottish parliament a Scot should become Prime Minister of the whole of the UK 52% said…

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Is this man the key to profitable leadership betting?

Is this man the key to profitable leadership betting?

Back Balls for Chancellor to cover yourself on Brown getting it The call here on Wednesday to back Alan Johnson at the then 18/1 as Tony Blair’s successor gets good coverage by Vicki Woods in the Telegraph this morning. This is what she writes:- “My favourite website is the curiously influential politicalbetting.com (influential because I’m quite convinced it played a part in Cameron’s capture of the Tory leadership). Anyway, it chirpily suggested only days ago that anyone who fancies an…

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