Labour recover to 34% but the Lib Dems still stuck on 18% A day and a half after the Observer published outline details of this month’s Mori poll survey the pollster has now published full information on its site. So instead of the bare “Tories are 7% ahead” that the Observer reported we now have the full figures which are with comparisons on the pollster’s last survey at the end of May are:- CON 41% (nc): LAB 34%(+3): LD 18%…
Brown aide says the party could be out of power for 15 years? The main lead in the Guardian this morning is a report of comments made by one of Gordon Brown’s closest advisers, Michael Wills MP, at a fringe union conference meeting at the weekend that the party is on course to lose the next election. The former minster is reported to have said that voters have lost trust in the party, won’t listen to its message, and that…
[Updated 0730] “Nearly one in four Labour supporters want their party to lose” The Observer carries reports this morning of a new Mori poll that shows that amongst those certain to vote – the pollster’s normal way of presenting its headline figures – the Tories had a 7% lead. The online version carries only a few details but those forking out £1.60 for the print edition edition get little extra information for their cash. Although there are fancy colour graphics…
Could Cameron or Brown have to rely on the DUP? Does Northern Ireland matter you may ask? Surely it’s just an obscure backwater that elects charming MP’s like Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness? Well maybe, but it’s important in that there are 18 Parliamentary seats in Northern Ireland. At the last election the split was: DUP 9: Sinn Fein 5: SDLP 3: UUP 1. Sinn Fein does not take its seats, so effectively there are currently 13 MP’s from Northern…
Could he become PM without ever having to face a grilling? One of the hardest things about trying to predict the next General Election is that, extraordinarily, we know so little about Gordon Brown. If, as is his plan, he manages to move into the top job without having to go through the ardours of fighting a leadership election he will have managed to by-pass, yet again, situations where he would have faced fierce questioning. For as both the Tories…
Tony Blair – will beating UKIP for 3rd place blunt the Brown attack dogs? We saw after the May locals how the impatient Brownites were ready to pile in to challenge Tony’s leadership after Labour’s disappointing results. If Bromley goes badly two weeks today will they be ready to pounce again? Aftter May 4th there appeared to be a concerted campaign to raise the temperature – but with no clear end game strategy. Maybe there might be something different this…
Has the “Tory leader in steep decline” claim got any foundation? In a feature on David Cameron and Tories in the Observer Andrew Rawnsley made this assertion – the peg for most of the article:- “To the concern of his circle, there are already signs that his novelty is wearing thin. His personal approval ratings are in steep decline.” This has sparked off much discussion on the site and in a number of Lib Dem blogs particularly those that backed…
Are we seeing a return of the Midterm Blues? Following the spate of difficulties that the Bush Administration has faced in recent months – Iraq, Katrina, immigration, Abramoff etc – the President has now got to face the midterm elections this November. Then he’ll see the entire House of Representatives, one third of the Senate and a host of statewide posts up for election. Historically, American voters have seen the midterms as an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with their incumbent…