But is Anthony King right with his historical comparisons? This month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has with changes on last month: CON 38(-1): LAB 33 (nc): LD 18 (nc). So the only difference is a one point fall in Tory support reducing the margin over Labour to 5%. These shares are broadly similar to this week’s Guardian ICM survey which had the Tories on 39% – four points ahead. The big difference between the two pollsters is the…
What’s Ming’s party’s role in the Cameron-Brown world? The July ICM poll in the Guardian did match its billing – it was full of surprises for all three parties. The Tory 39% equalling their highest share from the pollster in 13 years; Labour maintaining their 35% in spite of everything and the Lib Dem 17% being their lowest ICM figure since before the Iraq War. Until now all the focus has been on David Cameron attracting Lib Dem supporters and…
But Cameron needs more than 39% before he can think of Number 10? After all the waiting the delayed figures from the Guardian’s July ICM survey are now out and they have the Tories moving forward, Labour holding steady but the Lib Dems falling back. These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll which was in the Sunday Telegraph nearly three weeks ago. CON 39 (+3): LAB 35 (nc): LD 17 (-1).. Note that the reports that…
Why I’m putting more money on him going this year? Three news stories in the past couple of days have caused me to put more money on Tony Blair not surviving in the job until the end of the year. First the reports that Lord Levy – Blair’s tennis partner, Middle East envoy and fundraiser – did not answer police questions after his arrest but repeatedly said “no comment” indicate, surely, that this is getting serious. If this goes to…
The wait for the July ICM poll continues It’s now just on 2am and I am off to bed. There is no sign on the Guardian’s web pages of the July ICM survey even though they must have had the data for a couple of days. After suggesting yesterday that the paper was playing a form of striptease this appeared in our comments thread at 5.19pm yesterday evening – “Sorry to keep you waiting for the rest of the poll….
For some reason the comments facility on the previous article does not work. Please can we use this one.
..and why are men unmoved by Cameron? From the full dataset, now available, from last week’s ICM poll for Newsnight it’s clear that the leadership ratings presented on the programme might have given a misleading impression. A chart was shown indicating that those interviewed rated Cameron at 41, Brown at 37: and Campbell at 24 when asked whether the three had the qualities needed to be Prime Minister. This prompted discussion here because the shares added up to 102%. Now…
If you want to know how the parties are doing you’ll have to wait If you had hoped to wake up this morning to read how the parties are getting on as recorded in the longest running and most authoritative polling series in British politics – then tough. The Guardian has decided to play polling striptease with its ICM July poll so although there are hints of goodies to come the paper is making us wait for the key data…