Are the Tories about to lose their poll lead?

Are the Tories about to lose their poll lead?

Will Cameron’s absence and Reid’s profile turn the position round? During the past four months there have been twenty one consecutive voting intention polls from five different pollsters all showing a Tory lead – the party’s best polling performance for a decade and a half. The margins have been between two and ten points and the highest Labour share has been 35. But is this all about to change? Could one or two of the next scheduled polls have Labour…

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How the Korean missile punters lost out

How the Korean missile punters lost out

What happened when a political market went wrong? One of the biggest challenges running a betting market on events in the news is finding a mechanism that defines how the bet will be settled. With elections that is easy but with other markets problems can emerge as a big row involving the Dublin-based betting exchange, Tradesports, has shown. For at the start of July, until it was overshadowed by the tragic events in the Middle East, the main international story…

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Betting on a Reid “terror plot” boost

Betting on a Reid “terror plot” boost

Is the Home Secretary worth his 2nd favourite status? The increased prominence that John Reid is getting as a result of his handling of the terror plot has caused his price on the Betfair betting exchange to tighten sharply. He started the day at about 13/1 and as of 2030 the last recorded trade on Betfair was at 4/1. The price has eased a touch since then but Reid is now the firm second favourite behind Gordon Brown to succeed…

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Will politics be the same if the NOTW is tamed?

Will politics be the same if the NOTW is tamed?

Who’ll win – who’ll lose if the tabloids are constrained? It has struck me over the past 24 hours that the current case involving alleged phone intercepts and the News of the World could have a dramatic and long-lasting effect on British politics. Just look back at what has happened this year that was sparked off by the tabloids and you get a sense of the scale of these papers’ activities. The five people featured in the picture strip at…

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Could the next Lib Dem leader be the previous one?

Could the next Lib Dem leader be the previous one?

Will my 33/1 bet on Kennedy come good? On March 29th, barely three weeks after Ming Campbell’s election as Lib Dem leader, a betting market opened on who will replace the 65 year old ex-Olympic sprinter. One price stood out as I recorded at the time. “..For a real long-shot Charles Kennedy is priced at 100/1 – which looks like a great value bet. If he could show that he has really conquered his problems he would have a good…

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Should Gordon go for the Deputy job as well?

Should Gordon go for the Deputy job as well?

If Kinnock did it – why shouldn’t Brown? This might sound like a completely crazy idea, totally off the wall, but would not there be advantages for Gordon Brown if he followed the example of Neil Kinnock in 1983 and put himself forward for the Deputy’s job as well as the leadership? The idea of Gordon being deputy to anybody is so alien to how he is perceived that I have no doubt the bucket loads of scorn will be…

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Liberal defector said to be “in lead” for Deputy Labour job

Liberal defector said to be “in lead” for Deputy Labour job

Is the Guardian right about Peter Hain’s chances? The main story on the Guardian this morning is a report that the ex-Young Liberal President turned Labour minister, Peter Hain is now “in the lead” in the race to replace John Prescott as Labour’s Deputy leader and, presumably, Deputy Prime Minister. The career-minded Hain, who ditched the Liberals to join Labour in 1977, has, according to the report been “…assiduously courting the unions in the run up to the conference season….

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Your guide to the leadership election by “UKIP Insider”

Your guide to the leadership election by “UKIP Insider”

Following last week’s guest slot by Tabman raising the question of the possible impact on the Tories if a new UKIP leader seeks to occupy their territory UKIP Insider has written this appraisal of the contenders. Nigel Farage is seen as the favourite to win the UKIP leadership. He will win plenty of support from armchair activists because he is UKIP’s best-known face on television. However, it is by no means certain that he will actually remain in the race…

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