Will Austria finally say “Wiedersehen” to Jörg Haider?

Will Austria finally say “Wiedersehen” to Jörg Haider?

A guest article by Paul Maggs Two overseas elections take place on 1st October. Brazil holds the first round of its presidential election, and President Lula is virtually assured of victory – indeed he may clear the required 50% share on the first ballot. Closer to home, Austria also goes to the polls, but here the outcome is less clear-cut. A recent poll gives the ruling centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP) a 2-point lead over the Social Democrats (SPÖ) – all…

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Tory members vote on “Built To Last”

Tory members vote on “Built To Last”

How much will the result mean? Late September will see the result of the ballot of Conservative members on the party’s “Built To Last” mission statement. The process of a new, reforming leader having the party ratify his vision bears some resemblance to Tony Blair’s reform of the Labour constitution in 1995, exemplified by removing the Clause 4 commitment to state socialism. So is this Cameron’s Clause 4 moment? Not exactly. It’s not so much that “Built To Last” is…

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Sooner or later?

Sooner or later?

Would Blair prefer a quick exit to a humiliating timetable? After some relatively eclectic topics last week, let’s return to a favourite of this site and to British political coverage as a whole: the succession to Tony Blair. As usual, Blair is being asked to set a timetable for his departure, and refusing to, to the general unhappiness of Brownites and the Labour left; neither the TUC or the Labour conference is likely to give him a smooth ride. The…

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Marvels of modern polling? Exit polls, part 2

Marvels of modern polling? Exit polls, part 2

Part 2 of a two-part guest series by Harry Hayfield. Part 1 can be found here. Posted by their confidence at predicting Election 1997 to within an inch of the actual result, the pollsters headed into Election 2001 safe in the knowledge that they couldn’t get the result wrong no matter what the British electorate threw at them and so the BBC announced their exit poll for 2001 with it’s customary 2% margin of error. Labour 44%, Conservatives 32%, Liberal…

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John Hemming’s guest piece: Mosaic and general election betting

John Hemming’s guest piece: Mosaic and general election betting

Lloyd George was a trailblazer in a number of ways. As Chancellor he introduced the old age pension, unemployment benefit and financial support for the sick. As Prime Minister he led the country through most of the First World War. After the war he introduced political funding systems much like those seen today – by selling honours. One of his key areas of trailblazing was to approach politics from the perspective of winning the general election, rather than building a…

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Sean Fear’s local elections column

Sean Fear’s local elections column

Turnout recovers One feature of the first six years of this Government was declining turnout in local elections. Throughout the 1980’s, and the first half of the 1990’s turnout in local elections regularly exceeded 40%, historically, a high figure. After 1997, it declined steadily, reaching a low of 28% in 2000. In one by-election that year, in Liverpool, it even fell as low as 6%. This was mirrored in the General Election of 2001, when turnout reached 59%, the lowest…

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Meta-gambling

Meta-gambling

Prescott, the cowboy and the casino Something is pleasingly self-referential about betting on gambling itself. For some time, one of the bookies offered a market on whether it would win a licence to operate in Finland – they can’t, presumably, have taken much money on it, but the concept was a neat hedge against the profits at stake in winning the licence. And now through Betfair (look under Politics >> UK >> Super Casino Licence) you can bet on the…

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Stephen Tall’s guest slot: another Lib Dem election?

Stephen Tall’s guest slot: another Lib Dem election?

Past precedent, future Presidents… For those feeling starved of party election contests, the Lib Dems might just have a morsel to stave off the hunger pangs pending the Big One, Labour’s Brown v Someone battle. Simon Hughes (pictured), the current party President, is nearing the end of his first two-year term of office, and is eligible for re-election for one further term. The question is: will he re-stand, and if he does will anyone challenge him? When last the post…

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