Reid soars ahead of Cameron on YouGov’s BrandIndex tracker

Reid soars ahead of Cameron on YouGov’s BrandIndex tracker

Home Secretary’s “positive impression” rating up 15% in eleven days The latest YouGov BrandIndex data published on the UK Polling Report site shows a massive boost for the Home Secretary, John Reid (GREEN) since he came to prominence over his handling of the alleged terror plots. As can be seen from the chart he is well ahead of his potential Labour leadership rival, Gordon Brown (BROWN) and now enjoys poll ratings ahead of the Tory leader, David Cameron (BLUE), whose…

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Mori: 56% want Blair out by the end of the year

Mori: 56% want Blair out by the end of the year

Brown has 7% lead on Cameron on being a “capable PM” The Sunday Times this morning features a Mori poll on immigration and leader ratings but without a voting intention question and without using the measures other pollsters employ to ensure that their samples are politically representative. The most significant finding is that 47% of those surveyed think that Tony Blair should go immediately with 56% wanting him out before the end of the year. This is by far the…

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Could Blair face a challenge at next month’s conference?

Could Blair face a challenge at next month’s conference?

The Independent reports left-wing moves to press for an election A report by Colin Brown, Deputy Political Editor of the Independent, this morning says that “..demands for Tony Blair to quit over his support for US President George W Bush in the Middle East are to be taken to Labour’s annual conference next month in a direct challenge to his leadership by left-wing Labour campaigners.” He says that all constituency Labour parties are being sent an emergency resolution calling for…

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Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

How London Voted on May 5th I have now finished working out how each of the new constituencies voted in May’s local elections. This is a useful exercise, as the new boundaries will almost certainly be in force at the time of the next election. As each of the three main parties contested the vast majority of London’s council seats, it is quite easy to work out the results by constituency. In each case, I have taken the highest vote…

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What’s a realistic price on Gordon?

What’s a realistic price on Gordon?

At what stage is it worth betting on the Chancellor? The above chart shows the best betting price available on Gordon Brown to be the next Labour leader shown as an implied probability. This morning on the Betfair betting exchange you could get 0.44/1 – which for those less familiar with betting prices means that an investment of £100 would produce a profit of £44 on top of getting your stake back if he made it. So is that good…

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Is the terror threat being exaggerated?

Is the terror threat being exaggerated?

Yougov finds that less than one in two believes the politicians In a YouGov poll for this week’s Spectator just 49% of those surveyed said “No” to the question “Do you think British politicians generally exaggerate the terrorist threat?” A total of 12% said they did exaggerate “because they are ill informed themselves” while 23%, nearly a quarter, agreed with the statement “Yes, they do – and they know that the truth is not as they portray it”. Men seem…

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Will John Reid’s “baggage” withstand the intensive scrutiny?

Will John Reid’s “baggage” withstand the intensive scrutiny?

How worried should punters be about the Home Secretary’s past? When Tony Blair finally announces his intentions the starting gun will be fired on an event unprecedented in UK politics – a mass leadership election in a party that will effectively choose a new Prime Minister. For the last times that new leaders have been chosen while their parties were in power the electorates were restricted to just MPs. It was the respective parliamentary parties that chose Jim Callaghan after…

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Could Brown be scuppered again by poor poll numbers?

Could Brown be scuppered again by poor poll numbers?

Would he still get it if polls showed a leadership rival in the lead? With the Telegraph and the Independent both having big articles this morning talking up a potential John Reid leadership bid could Gordon Brown’s chances of taking the top job be hit by opinion polls showing that he was behind a rival? For the Chancellor has not got a good record in leadership polls in spite of the efforts by his supporters to over-state the importance of…

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