Who’ll get the boot so Brown can have his Balls?

Who’ll get the boot so Brown can have his Balls?

How will Labour deal with the abolition of the Normanton seat? The news before the weekend that Labour’s effort to save the Normantion seat has been turned down by the high court was over-shadowed by the Head of the Army’s comments about Iraq. Although not on the same scale the court’s backing for the Boundary Committee’s ruling sets Labour an enormous problem. An indication of the importance of this is that the local Labour council risked being attacked for agreeing…

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Has Gordon been helped by Blair’s bad week?

Has Gordon been helped by Blair’s bad week?

Is the Chancellor now unstoppable? After the odd betting activity of the past two weeks all the money in the Labour leadership betting now seems to be going on Gordon Brown. As the price chart shows those who were betting against him at prices up to 0.58/1 now seemed to have withdrawn and the best you can get this morning is 0.46/1. So a £100 bet winning today would produce would produce a profit of £46 – earlier in the…

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What will Gordon & Dave be able to say about Iraq?

What will Gordon & Dave be able to say about Iraq?

Will the 2003 invasion carry on being an issue after Tony has left? Yesterday’s extraordinary comments by the Head of the Army and the mounting daily death toll in Iraq are timely reminders that Labour’s decision to go to war in 2003, supported wholeheartedly by the Tories, will remain high on the UK political agenda. This weeks “revelations” from David Blunkett about Gordon Brown’s role and views ahead of the critical decisions in 2003 will add further to the debate…

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Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Why the North Matters to the Conservatives It’s often assumed that the North of England turned against the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher. This is, in fact, incorrect. In both 1983, and 1987, the Conservatives outpolled Labour across the North of England. A big swing away from the Conservatives took place in Liverpool, Manchester, and Newcastle, during the Thatcher years, but in other parts of the North, such as Bury, Bolton, Halifax, Bradford, and the Lancashire mill…

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Could Dannatt’s Iraq comments hasten Blair’s departure?

Could Dannatt’s Iraq comments hasten Blair’s departure?

What’s the fall-out from the Army Head’s Daily Mail interview? This morning’s dramatic comments in the Daily Mail by General Sir Richard Dannatt, that Britain must withdraw from Iraq “soon” or risk serious consequences for Iraqi and British society must be the biggest public split between the head of the Army and the Government in generations. For they run right across Tony Blair’s flagship foreign policy and bring onto the agenda again an issue that has caused so much damage…

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Following the mid-terms on the Iowa Electronic Market

Following the mid-terms on the Iowa Electronic Market

The US “stock market” where political futures are traded With all the focus on the US mid-terms one of the world’s great political betting arenas comes into its own – the Iowa Electronic Markets. This is operated by the state University in Iowa as an academic exercise on how markets function and has grown into a remarkable place where what are termed “political futures” are traded. What happens is that the IEE sets up a market and defines “stock” to…

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Could Cameron be the one who finally gets Blair out?

Could Cameron be the one who finally gets Blair out?

But can Labour MPs risk giving the Tory leader the trophy of the PM’s head With David Cameron enjoying what are by far and away his best ever PMQ reviews in the papers this morning the question has to be asked – how much more of this can Tony Blair take? Could the apparent impossibility of his position force a departure much earlier than next summer? My first reaction on watching the recording was to log onto Betfair to get…

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Guest slot: Peter Smith’s guide to betting odds and value

Guest slot: Peter Smith’s guide to betting odds and value

What do we mean by odds, percentages and the overround? To a betting man, the odds are everything. This may appear obvious but believe me it is often ignored in practice. I suspect this is because our grasp of odds, the implied percentages and our assessment of whether they offer value is somewhat intuitive. But try taking a more analytical approach and you may be surprised at what you find. Start with the simple match bet between two contestants of…

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