Is John Reid now carrying the flag for Team Blair?

Is John Reid now carrying the flag for Team Blair?

But could his “Back Story” blow his chances? Judging by the way Tony Blair enthusiastically greeted John Reid’s conference speech are the “anyone but Brown” factions now pinning their hopes on the Home Secretary? Certainly it appeared that way and punters have eased off Brown and have now backed Reid into the second favourite slot again. There can be little doubt that Reid’s powerful speech was in all but name a declaration that he will be standing. The big question…

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ICM data shows Brown retaining just 60% of Labour ’05 voters

ICM data shows Brown retaining just 60% of Labour ’05 voters

New polling innovation shows problem for Ming as well In a major new way of presenting and collating polling information the detailed data from Friday’s ICM September poll in the Guardian, just out, gives a breakdown of what people will do based on how they voted in the 2005 General Election. The news is not good for the Fife neighbours, Gordon Brown and Ming Campbell. For only three out of five people who voted Labour in 2005 told ICM they…

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Markets move to June 2007 departure

Markets move to June 2007 departure

Will Gordon have to wait longer before he can go at Cameron? Comments in a Radio 4 interview by the Education Secretary and possible leadership challenger, Alan Johnson, that Tony Blair would stay longer than most people were expecting has led to active trading on the departure date and the “length of third term” spread betting markets. Johnson’s comments indicated a late summer departure which could deprive the new leader of taking over while the Commons is still sitting. It’s…

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Could John Hutton be Labour’s John Major?

Could John Hutton be Labour’s John Major?

The Blair loyalist moves into the 4th favourite slot In spite of all the focus on leadership issues in Manchester over the past three days there’ve been only two real moves in the betting on who will succeed Tony Blair. The second favourite, Alan Johnson has now eased into the third place position at 10/1 with the Home secretary, John Reid, being backed down from 20/1 at the weekend to 8/1 this morning. Meanwhile of the outsiders the Works and…

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Does Blair’s speech mean that he’ll be around a bit longer?

Does Blair’s speech mean that he’ll be around a bit longer?

Could he have greater influence over the succession? Surely the big political impact of Tony Blair’s extraordinary farewell speech this afternoon is that he, and nobody else, will decide on the precise date when the removal vans will arrive at Number 10? The “tour de force” and the amazing reception he was given by delegates in Manchester put him in a unique position for the coming months. It’s going to be hard for anybody, particularly Gordon, to put any pressure…

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Why can’t Gordon do the “sincerity thing”?

Why can’t Gordon do the “sincerity thing”?

How damaging were Cherie’s alleged remarks? After watching and re-watching the vast amount of material coming out of Manchester I’ve come to the conclusion that the real problem with Gordon is that he cannot “do” sincerity. The world “knows” that he was behind the “rolling resignation” plan to oust Tony earlier in the month that it is stretching credulity to it absolute limits for him to be going on the platform talking about the “great privilege” of working for all…

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How punters reacted to the Brown speech

How punters reacted to the Brown speech

Gamblers not convinced so the Chancellor’s odds move out The chart shows the changes during the past six hours in the Gordon Brown price for the Labour leadership. Mike Smithson

Has Johnson recovered from the damning 2006 research?

Has Johnson recovered from the damning 2006 research?

How much of ICM’s and Luntz’s findings are still relevant? If Alan Johnson was going to have any chance in the Labour leadership race he needed a poll boost from something like the Frank Luntz focus groups or the online session carried out by ICM and reported in the Guardian this morning. At this stage he needs something that will give him the status of a challenger. For his problem is his very low public profile and the only way…

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