Meanwhile the young leader plans to attack Brown for being “weak” There’ll be a bit of a relief as the Tories gather in Bournemouth this morning that the second poll to come out since the Labour conference still has the party in the lead. The survey by ICM in the Sunday Mirror, has with changes on the last poll by the firm CON 36 (nc): LAB 35 (+3): LD 19 (-3). Fieldwork began on Thursday, a day later than yesterday’s…
Has Election Night Special Had its Day? One of my pet hates is the BBC’s Election Night Special. It’s not too bad for General Elections, but their coverage of local elections is woeful. One spends hours watching talking heads, trying to spin the results on behalf of their respective political parties, and all piously agreeing with each other about how dreadful the British National Party is. Amid all this verbiage, one then gets about ten minutes of Professor Anthony King,…
Lib Dems suffer most from Blair farewell conference boost On Tuesday in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s extraordinary farewell speech I predicted here that this would “give the party a small but significant boost in the polls and … might even see Labour back into the lead..” And so it has happened. A Yougov survey for the Telegraph that was mostly carried out in the immediate aftermath of the Blair speech has these shares this morning with comparisons on their…
Blair and Reid the big movers For all the reported infighting at Labour’s Manchester conference the latest BrandIndex figures from YouGov show a boost for all the main party leaders during the week. These are based on five-day rolling averages of more than 600 online interviews a day until yesterday – so the full impact will not be seen until after the weekend. John Reid, who spoke yesterday, got a huge boost and if that continues over the next few…
Day by day – how punters views changed I’ve been working with the Guardian this afternoon on help with a graphic on how gamblers have changed their views on Gordon Brown’s leadership chances as the week has progressed. The only problem I’ve had is that they’ve wanted the prices in old fashioned fractional odds – not the decimal-type that we tend to use here. So if it is used tomorrow it will be a bit different from my chart above…
Creating and Managing A Betting Bank You like a punt and think you have spotted an opportunity – but how much do you stake? Of course, it’s entirely up to you but I reckon a systematic staking plan will help to improve your betting. Begin by creating a Betting Bank. I mean by this a separate sum of money, ring-fenced from your daily budget and preferably kept in a separate account. Its size will depend not just on your means…
But could his “Back Story” blow his chances? Judging by the way Tony Blair enthusiastically greeted John Reid’s conference speech are the “anyone but Brown” factions now pinning their hopes on the Home Secretary? Certainly it appeared that way and punters have eased off Brown and have now backed Reid into the second favourite slot again. There can be little doubt that Reid’s powerful speech was in all but name a declaration that he will be standing. The big question…
New polling innovation shows problem for Ming as well In a major new way of presenting and collating polling information the detailed data from Friday’s ICM September poll in the Guardian, just out, gives a breakdown of what people will do based on how they voted in the 2005 General Election. The news is not good for the Fife neighbours, Gordon Brown and Ming Campbell. For only three out of five people who voted Labour in 2005 told ICM they…