Focus on Watford Last night, I attended the Primary which chose the Conservative candidate for Watford, at the next election. Ian Oakley was chosen by a huge margin, on the first ballot. Ian is a friend of mine, and was Ali Miraj’s campaign manager in 2005. He worked enormously hard at the last election, and in my opinion, Watford made the right choice in selecting him. Watford incorporates all the wards on Watford Borough Council, together with five wards from…
Is Tony going back on Wednesday’s apparent endorsement? The extraordinary saga that is the Labour succession will take a new turn on Sunday when the Observer will publish a report of an interview with the Prime Minister in which he refuses to confirm that the “big fist” he threatened Tory leader David Cameron with in the Queen’s speech debate was a reference to the Chancellor. In an interview that took place yesterday for Sunday’s Observer he was pressed to offer…
Will Yates’s “significant and valuable material” bring the exit forward? Big new developments in the Yates inquiry this afternoon have seen changes in the “Blair leaving date” betting. The price on a Q1 2007 exit has moved in sharply as punters have tried to work out what are the implications of Assistant Commissioner John Yates letter to Tony Wright – the MP who chairs the Public administration select committee. The plan is for the inquiry team to get a file…
The money piles on Brown after Blair’s apparent endorsement The above chart shows hour by hour how the betting markets reacted to yesterday’s Queen’s speech debate when Tony Blair apparently endorsed Gordon Brown as his successor. Punters have weighed in to bet on Brown and his best price tightened at one stage to 0.22/1. In fiery exchanges with David Cameron Tony Blair predicted that Labour will be led at the next election by a heavyweight with a “big clunking fist”…
What’s the truth behind the gender gap reports? Over the past couple of weeks there’s been a lot of focus on the big gender gap that is said to have developed in support for the two main parties. This was sparked off by the November Populus Poll in the Times when this was given splash treatment and has been followed up a number of columnists. One of the problems with the Times report was that it was based on just…
Has the programme been devised to boost Reid and to stop Gordon? Stoking up the rhetoric on crime, terror and immigration looks set to be the central theme of this morning’s traditional speech by the Queen at the opening of Parliament. For those interested in the key betting markets of the Labour leadership and “when Blair will go” the main focus is on who is going to be getting all the publicity as the new legislative programme is pushed through…
May 4th 2005 – eight hours to the off At just after 11pm on the night before the May 2005 General Election a retired solicitor and a staunch Methodist who is strongly opposed to gambling knocked on my door clutching £500 in twenty pound notes in his hand. Could I, he asked, put a bet on for him? He explained that for the past three weeks he had been doing a daily 220 mile round trip to help the Liberal…
Is 18/1 on a 2006 exit announcement good value? I was very struck by this recent comment in the Times by Mary Ann Sieghart Every time I read a story claiming that Tony Blair won’t leave office until May or June or July, I become even more convinced that he is planning an early exit. Why? Because the only weapon left to him is surprise. If he wants to go with dignity, it has to be on his own terms….