Is it time for Gordon to be biting his nails?

Is it time for Gordon to be biting his nails?

Does more polling bad news make him less certain for leader? The final poll of this survey rich week has seen another poor performance for Labour, more terrible figures for the Lib Dems. and the Tories consolidating a significant lead. The shares in YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph with comparisons on the last poll a month ago are CON 39% (+3): LAB 32% (-4): LD 16 (nc). The YouGov figures reinforce the polls on Tuesday and Wednesday from Communicate…

Read More Read More

Is this what happened to Labour’s tax attack dog?

Is this what happened to Labour’s tax attack dog?

Why couldn’t the Brownites cash in on the Tory tax plan cock-up? On Sunday when I was planning the week ahead on the site I was convinced that the following days might see the moment when the Cameron band-wagon would drive to a halt. For judging by the weekend press reports Gordon Brown’s team had been absolutely cock a hoot over the way they had derailed last week’s Tory tax commission announcement and had got David Cameron and George Osborne…

Read More Read More

Sorry for our problems today

Sorry for our problems today

As a result of problems with Register.com we have had serious outages for most of the day. What normally happens is that the politicalbetting url takes you to Register.com which in turn points you to our server in Cambridge. For large parts of the day that has not been happening. I’ve been like a heroin addict desperately in need of a fix especially after such a surprising poll. The good news is that we are back. Thanks for your patience….

Read More Read More

Before “adjustment” Labour’s ICM deficit was 14%

Before “adjustment” Labour’s ICM deficit was 14%

How a device to deal with shy Tories gives Brown’s party a 4% boost If it’s any consolation today’s ICM poll in the Guardian could have been much much worse for Blair-Brown but for the pollster’s final adjustment that was introduced after the 1992 General Election to deal with the phenomenon of “shy Tories”. For instead of the CON 39%: LAB 29%: LD 22% headline figures that have been reported the shares were CON 41% – LAB 27%. For what…

Read More Read More

Massive boost for Cameron from ICM

Massive boost for Cameron from ICM

The Guardian’s pollster shows the party has a 10% lead The vote shares in this month’s ICM poll for the Guardian are just out and show a big move away from Labour with the party down below 30%. The actual vote shares are with changes on the last survey from the pollster taken just after the Tory party conference CON 39 (+1): LAB 29 (-3): LD 22 (+2). The movements are in line with yesterday’s Communicate Research survey and compare…

Read More Read More

Is this the ticket that secures the unions for Gordon?

Is this the ticket that secures the unions for Gordon?

Is a deal being struck so Brown’s backing Cruddas? In all the discussion on Labour’s leadership elections far too little attention has been paid to what’s driving the third element in the party’s electoral structure – the trade unions. For after years of being half-ignored by Downing Street the union bosses appear determined to put their thumb-prints on the Labour succession if only, at the very least, to assert their key role in the Labour movement. Given that the outcome…

Read More Read More

Communicate Research puts Labour 6% behind

Communicate Research puts Labour 6% behind

The Independent’s pollster has the Lib Dems on just 14% Gloom for Labour and the Lib Dems and a boost for the Tories is the message from this morning’s poll in the Independent from Communicate Research – which has not had a published a national voting intention survey since last year’s General Election. The headline figures – CON 38%: LAB 32%: LD 14% – show a very high proportion of respondents going for other parties. Just under 1,000 people were…

Read More Read More

My 50/1 shot says he’s considering running for the White House

My 50/1 shot says he’s considering running for the White House

Could the only black Senator make it all the way? Barack Obama, first tipped here when he was 50/1 in May 2005, has given a strong indication that he might run for the White House. According to the BBC Obama told a TV interviewer that “Given the responses I’ve been getting… I have thought about the possibility” and he said he would give the matter more thought after the mid-term vote. The Illionois Senator was recently featured on the cover…

Read More Read More