The US Mid-Terms Prize Prediction Competition

The US Mid-Terms Prize Prediction Competition

Can you predict who will control the House and Senate after Tuesday? House of Representatives (total seats 435). Predict the number of seats won by: Democrats Republicans Others Senate (total seats 100)Predict the number of seats held after the election by: Democrats Republicans Others Tie-Breaker What percentage of the vote will Joe Lieberman receive in the Senate race in Connecticut? Make your prediction to up to two decimal places. Scoring Your score in each case will be the absolute difference…

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How many Democrats will be going to Capitol Hill?

How many Democrats will be going to Capitol Hill?

Will there be a double blow for Bush in Washington? With most pundits and polls suggesting that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the US Mid Terms on Tuesday attention is focussing on the Senate where latest polls indicate that it is getting very close. According to Electoral-Vote.com both the Democrats and the Republicans are set to get 49 seats in the Senate with two states, Missouri and Virginia, currently tied. The betting markets are…

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Sean Fear’s Local Election Column

Sean Fear’s Local Election Column

How the Minor Parties are Faring One theme which I have commented upon on several occasions is the increasing vote which is going to minor parties. Most opinion polls show “Others” on 10%+, with Communicate Research giving them more than 15%. I think it unlikely that their share in a general election would be as high as 15%, but that figure is certainly plausible in local elections. In May’s London Borough elections, for example, 16% voted for parties other than…

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What’s behind Cameron’s “love a yob” move?

What’s behind Cameron’s “love a yob” move?

Is raising “hug-a-hoodie” again good or bad politics? Given the way that David Cameron’s “hug a hoodie” speech four months ago seemed to attract so much derision why is the Tory leader going back onto the same territory with his latest “tough love” for yobs speech? He’s called for “a lot more love” to be shown to young offenders as part of an effort to encourage good behaviour and has suggested that there is a more understanding approach as to…

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Big poll boost for Obama backers

Big poll boost for Obama backers

Survey shows him doing better than Hillary against McCain Until this past week it has been hard assessing the White House chances of Barack Obama, the black Senator from Illinois, because his name has hardly figured in any of the polling. But that’s all changed following his announcement last week and a massive publicity blitz across the nation promoting his new book. Obama has become a nationally known figure almost overnight and he is clearly making an impact. The first…

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Sun story sets off a rush to back Blears

Sun story sets off a rush to back Blears

The shortest MP sees her price shorten from 50/1 to 7/1 in just two hours The Salford MP and Labour chair who shares with Lib Dem, Sarah Teather, the honour of being Britain’s shortest MP, Hazel Blears, has seen the price on her becoming Deputy Labour leader shorten from 50/1 to 7/1 during the morning. This follows a report in today’s Sun quoting someone described as “a friend of the Chancellor”: “Gordon will not be backing any one candidate in…

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Can the Republicans recover as the contest gets dirtier?

Can the Republicans recover as the contest gets dirtier?

Are we seeing the impact of the US on-line betting clampdown? With just five days of campaigning left the latest projections on the Electoral Vote site based on up to date polling show a 50:50 split in the Senate but with the Democrats having control of the House of Representatives by 239-195. On the Betfair betting exchange market the Democrats are now on 0.29/1 to take the House with the Republicans at 3/1. The Senate betting has the Republicans at…

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Was Speaker Martin right to come to Blair’s aid?

Was Speaker Martin right to come to Blair’s aid?

Why shouldn’t Cameron be allowed to raise the succession at PMQs? In a move that could have big ramifications the Speaker, Michael Martin, came to Tony Blair’s aid at PMQs this lunch-time when the Tory leader asked about the Labour succession. Amidst extraordinary scenes Martin ruled that the Prime Minister could not be asked about the Labour leadership. According to the BBC report Cameron responded: “Mr Speaker are you honestly saying we cannot ask the prime minister of the country…”….

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