Sean Fear’s Local Election Column

Sean Fear’s Local Election Column

How the Minor Parties are Faring One theme which I have commented upon on several occasions is the increasing vote which is going to minor parties. Most opinion polls show “Others” on 10%+, with Communicate Research giving them more than 15%. I think it unlikely that their share in a general election would be as high as 15%, but that figure is certainly plausible in local elections. In May’s London Borough elections, for example, 16% voted for parties other than…

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What’s behind Cameron’s “love a yob” move?

What’s behind Cameron’s “love a yob” move?

Is raising “hug-a-hoodie” again good or bad politics? Given the way that David Cameron’s “hug a hoodie” speech four months ago seemed to attract so much derision why is the Tory leader going back onto the same territory with his latest “tough love” for yobs speech? He’s called for “a lot more love” to be shown to young offenders as part of an effort to encourage good behaviour and has suggested that there is a more understanding approach as to…

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Big poll boost for Obama backers

Big poll boost for Obama backers

Survey shows him doing better than Hillary against McCain Until this past week it has been hard assessing the White House chances of Barack Obama, the black Senator from Illinois, because his name has hardly figured in any of the polling. But that’s all changed following his announcement last week and a massive publicity blitz across the nation promoting his new book. Obama has become a nationally known figure almost overnight and he is clearly making an impact. The first…

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Sun story sets off a rush to back Blears

Sun story sets off a rush to back Blears

The shortest MP sees her price shorten from 50/1 to 7/1 in just two hours The Salford MP and Labour chair who shares with Lib Dem, Sarah Teather, the honour of being Britain’s shortest MP, Hazel Blears, has seen the price on her becoming Deputy Labour leader shorten from 50/1 to 7/1 during the morning. This follows a report in today’s Sun quoting someone described as “a friend of the Chancellor”: “Gordon will not be backing any one candidate in…

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Can the Republicans recover as the contest gets dirtier?

Can the Republicans recover as the contest gets dirtier?

Are we seeing the impact of the US on-line betting clampdown? With just five days of campaigning left the latest projections on the Electoral Vote site based on up to date polling show a 50:50 split in the Senate but with the Democrats having control of the House of Representatives by 239-195. On the Betfair betting exchange market the Democrats are now on 0.29/1 to take the House with the Republicans at 3/1. The Senate betting has the Republicans at…

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Was Speaker Martin right to come to Blair’s aid?

Was Speaker Martin right to come to Blair’s aid?

Why shouldn’t Cameron be allowed to raise the succession at PMQs? In a move that could have big ramifications the Speaker, Michael Martin, came to Tony Blair’s aid at PMQs this lunch-time when the Tory leader asked about the Labour succession. Amidst extraordinary scenes Martin ruled that the Prime Minister could not be asked about the Labour leadership. According to the BBC report Cameron responded: “Mr Speaker are you honestly saying we cannot ask the prime minister of the country…”….

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Has Cameron upset Rupert over the Iraq debate?

Has Cameron upset Rupert over the Iraq debate?

Is this why the Times and the Sun are carrying similar editorials? Probably the biggest risk that Cameron’s Tories took by voting against the Government in the Iraq debate was not the predictable charges of opportunism from the Labour benches but that he might have upset Rupert Murdoch whose News International corporation owns large parts of the media including the Times and the Sun. For although the Telegraph under its news editor might be coming more on side the new…

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Brown’s price tightens to pre-Cameron levels

Brown’s price tightens to pre-Cameron levels

Is the Iraq debate encouraging punters to back the Chancellor? With Tony Blair preparing to face a difficult session in the House of Commons tonight on calls for an inquiry in Iraq the best betting price on Gordon Brown being Tony Blair’s successor has tightened to 0.35/1 – a level that it has been at only once before since David Cameron’s election as Tory leader on December 6th. The price has been moving in this direction for the past three…

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