Why does Cameron’s name lift his party so much? The headline figures in today Populus poll in the Times have the Tories at their lowest point since April and only two points ahead of Labour. The headline figures are with changes on last month: CON 34% (-2): LAB 33% (nc): LD 19% (-1). These will be very disappointing figures for the Tories who only a week ago saw the party with an 8% lead with ICM. One of the factors…
Is Gordon’s long chase nearly over? For the whole of the year that David Cameron has been Tory leader there has been one consistent opinion poll finding that has produced a similar outcome whenever it has been asked. To the question of how would you vote if it was Brown’s Labour against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems the outcome from whichever pollster has asked the question has always been a better position for the Conservatives. Populus for the monthly…
..why is a Murdoch paper gunning for Gordon? The main highlights from this morning papers are an attack on the US pollster, Frank Luntz, by Nick Cohen in the Observer and a series of critical stories about Gordon Brown in the Sunday Times that, taken together, look as though the paper is turning against him. The Cohen piece under the heading “How a celebrity pollster created Cameron” covers the impact on the Tory leadership contest last year of the famous…
Is the Labour chair in danger of “crying wolf”? Clearly, and perhaps we should say thankfully, not everybody studies electoral mathematics with the same intensity as visitors to PBC. But you would have thought that Hazel Blears, chair of the Labour party, would have a broad view of the situation when, as she has done this weekend, she sends out a letter to party members. Of course it is her duty to keep the party at large in a state…
Focus on St. Albans Arguably, St. Albans ought to be a Liberal Democrat Parliamentary seat. For years, prior to 1997, the Liberal Democrats achieved a clear second place in the seat, and by 1996, held 40 out of 58 seats on the District Council. Boundary changes, in 1996, removed all of Harpenden from the constituency, and with it, a huge proportion of the Conservative majority. The Liberal Democrats were favourites to win in 1997 However, Labour surprised everybody by breaking…
Is this the woman who could help determine the date? This is Deborah Mattinson, joint chief executive of Opinion Leader Research, a pollster for the Labour party for the past two two decades and someone who is likely to play a key role in advising Brown on whether to go for an early general election. In recent months she has been a big critic of one or two surveys that have not been favourable to the Chancellor. Brown will need…
What questions give the best measure of views on Cameron and Brown? A few days ago two pollsters that I have a lot of time for, YouGov and ICM reported increased Tory leads in opinion polls they were carrying out at exactly the same time. Yet when the two firms got to asking respondents to rate Brown and Cameron against each other for Prime Minister their findings seemed contradictory. The YouGov sample split 43-34 in favour of the Tories on…
What are we to make of “The Mole’s” prediction? One of the great additions to the UK online media in the past year or so has been the news magazine The First Post. A feature I always look at are the regular articles under the banner “The Mole” who is billed as a “Downing Street Insider. Shortly before the Chancellor rose to his feet to make his pre-Budget statement “The Mole” published a piece suggesting that Tony Blair will be…