Will the “big fist” bring back the swing voters?

Will the “big fist” bring back the swing voters?

Was Blair doing the Chancellor a favour with his fighting imagery? As often happens in politics the initial reaction to a development or a speech can change quite drastically within a few days. Last Wednesday Tony Blair’s farewell Commons performance in a Queen’s speech debate was well received by commentators particularly his “put down” of David Cameron by threatening him with a “big fist” – a move seen as an endorsement of Gordon Brown. By yesterday there had been a…

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Should Brown punters be nervous about the honours probe?

Should Brown punters be nervous about the honours probe?

What are we to make of today’s Observer story? We have now reached a stage, surely, where the only thing that should concern those who have risked money on Gordon Brown for leader is what Harold Macmillan described as “events dear boy, events”. The Brixton-born former Tory PM was responding to the question “what represented the greatest challenge for a statesman?” One of those “events”, if the Observer this morning is right, could be the honours probe. For according to…

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Will we miss the traditional election night programmes?

Will we miss the traditional election night programmes?

Harry Hayfield on the changes that could end overnight counting Northern Ireland as we know is a law unto itself electorally. Not only do the norms of political convention not apply there (no Labour party or Liberal Democrats), but so the norms of electoral convention. For instance, can you see the returning officer in Sunderland South making a declaration at 10.42AM? Earlier this year the Election Administration Bill was discussed in Parliament and it suggested that maybe Northern Ireland was…

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Are Gore and Kerry now out of it?

Are Gore and Kerry now out of it?

New polls dash hopes for the White House losers of 2000 and 2004 In the first round of ’08 White House polls since the US midterms there’s good news for Rudy Giuliani, John McCain ,Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama but bad news for the vote winner but electoral college loser of 2000, Al Gore, and the man who went to bed on November 4th 2004 believing the exit polls meant he was next President, John Kerry. With tight races for…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Focus on Watford Last night, I attended the Primary which chose the Conservative candidate for Watford, at the next election. Ian Oakley was chosen by a huge margin, on the first ballot. Ian is a friend of mine, and was Ali Miraj’s campaign manager in 2005. He worked enormously hard at the last election, and in my opinion, Watford made the right choice in selecting him. Watford incorporates all the wards on Watford Borough Council, together with five wards from…

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EXCLUSIVE: Blair refuses to confirm that he’s backing Brown

EXCLUSIVE: Blair refuses to confirm that he’s backing Brown

Is Tony going back on Wednesday’s apparent endorsement? The extraordinary saga that is the Labour succession will take a new turn on Sunday when the Observer will publish a report of an interview with the Prime Minister in which he refuses to confirm that the “big fist” he threatened Tory leader David Cameron with in the Queen’s speech debate was a reference to the Chancellor. In an interview that took place yesterday for Sunday’s Observer he was pressed to offer…

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The honours probe: Will we need “Hug a Blairie”?

The honours probe: Will we need “Hug a Blairie”?

Will Yates’s “significant and valuable material” bring the exit forward? Big new developments in the Yates inquiry this afternoon have seen changes in the “Blair leaving date” betting. The price on a Q1 2007 exit has moved in sharply as punters have tried to work out what are the implications of Assistant Commissioner John Yates letter to Tony Wright – the MP who chairs the Public administration select committee. The plan is for the inquiry team to get a file…

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How punters reacted to Brown’s big day

How punters reacted to Brown’s big day

The money piles on Brown after Blair’s apparent endorsement The above chart shows hour by hour how the betting markets reacted to yesterday’s Queen’s speech debate when Tony Blair apparently endorsed Gordon Brown as his successor. Punters have weighed in to bet on Brown and his best price tightened at one stage to 0.22/1. In fiery exchanges with David Cameron Tony Blair predicted that Labour will be led at the next election by a heavyweight with a “big clunking fist”…

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