Did Blair get value from the controversial election loans?

Did Blair get value from the controversial election loans?

How much did the bill-boards help Labour to victory? There is something rather ironic about the fact that a big part of the money Labour borrowed in the run-up to the 2005 General Election was spent on bill-boards like the one above promoting the Government’s successes with the economy and interest rate policy. This was a key theme in the huge advertising blitz in the run-up to May 5th and on which a large part of the borrowed money was…

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Communicate Research: polling in the old fashioned way

Communicate Research: polling in the old fashioned way

Labour ahead in the paper that brought you the Harman poll cock-up Back in 1992 they used to run polls like the one by Communicate Research that appears in the Independent this morning. That was the year of what Nick Sparrow of ICM calls “the great polling debacle” The final opinion polls gave the Conservatives between 38% and 39% of the vote, about 1% behind. On the day itself exit polls were carried out and everything was pointing to a…

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Was the Independent “conned” on the Harman poll?

Was the Independent “conned” on the Harman poll?

YouGov’s actual figures were neutral for Harriet and bad for Brown We’ve now got the full data from this morning’s poll by YouGov that was reported in the Indpendent – and my warning that “.. we need to see the full detail of how the survey was carried out before coming to firm conclusions” could not have been more right. For the actual numbers do show that 15% of respondents said they were “much more” or a “little more” likely…

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Will Labour be saved by the “90 minute nationalists”?

Will Labour be saved by the “90 minute nationalists”?

Could retaining the Calcutta Cup impede Salmond’s party? With the weekend ICM poll showing support for an independent Scotland both north and south of the border the conditions for a strong SNP performance in May’s election for the Scottish Parliament could not be better. Judging by the fierce attacks on Alec Salmond’s party by both John Reid and Tony Blair in the two days there can be little doubt that Labour is worried. There is a Glaswegian friend of mine…

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YouGov boost for Harman’s deputy bid

YouGov boost for Harman’s deputy bid

Poll suggests that she could win 15% more votes for Labour According to a YouGov poll reported in the Independent this morning 15% of voters said they would be “more likely” to support Labour if Harriet Harman was deputy leader. Hilary Benn was in second place on this measure with 12% saying they would be more likely to vote Labour but none of the other contenders got into double figures. Hazel Blears – the party chair and other potential female…

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Tories in lead with Mori for the first time since July

Tories in lead with Mori for the first time since July

Labour support drops 4% on the month as LDs get boost The latest Mori survey, published in the Observer, shows a sharp fall-back in Labour support. Its poll, carried out from November 9-14th, has the following shares with the changes from October – CON 35 (nc): LAB 33 (-4): LD 20 (+2). The poll is quite old and the field-work finished a week last Tuesday. Thus the whole of the survey was completed before the Queen’s Speech the week before…

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NOP poll setback for Brown against Cameron

NOP poll setback for Brown against Cameron

The Chancellor trails 19-29 on who would make the best PM According to Iain Dale an NOP telephone poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Edition programme on ITV found shares of Cameron 29: Brown 19: Campbell 5 when respondents were asked to say who would make the “best Prime Minister”. A striking feature of the poll is the very high level of don’t knows or refusers – getting on for half of those who took part. When asked who “had the freshest…

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Is the real story that Labour’s going broke?

Is the real story that Labour’s going broke?

How serious a financial mess is the party in? While everybody is focussing on the row over Labour ordering its councillors to pay a proportion of their allowances to help it wipe out its massive debts are we missing the bigger picture – that following the loans for peerages crisis that the party is in danger of going broke? This latest move, backed by threats of disciplinary action against those councillors not obeying, follows the decision by the party to…

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