Labour ahead in the paper that brought you the Harman poll cock-up Back in 1992 they used to run polls like the one by Communicate Research that appears in the Independent this morning. That was the year of what Nick Sparrow of ICM calls “the great polling debacle” The final opinion polls gave the Conservatives between 38% and 39% of the vote, about 1% behind. On the day itself exit polls were carried out and everything was pointing to a…
YouGov’s actual figures were neutral for Harriet and bad for Brown We’ve now got the full data from this morning’s poll by YouGov that was reported in the Indpendent – and my warning that “.. we need to see the full detail of how the survey was carried out before coming to firm conclusions” could not have been more right. For the actual numbers do show that 15% of respondents said they were “much more” or a “little more” likely…
Could retaining the Calcutta Cup impede Salmond’s party? With the weekend ICM poll showing support for an independent Scotland both north and south of the border the conditions for a strong SNP performance in May’s election for the Scottish Parliament could not be better. Judging by the fierce attacks on Alec Salmond’s party by both John Reid and Tony Blair in the two days there can be little doubt that Labour is worried. There is a Glaswegian friend of mine…
Poll suggests that she could win 15% more votes for Labour According to a YouGov poll reported in the Independent this morning 15% of voters said they would be “more likely” to support Labour if Harriet Harman was deputy leader. Hilary Benn was in second place on this measure with 12% saying they would be more likely to vote Labour but none of the other contenders got into double figures. Hazel Blears – the party chair and other potential female…
Labour support drops 4% on the month as LDs get boost The latest Mori survey, published in the Observer, shows a sharp fall-back in Labour support. Its poll, carried out from November 9-14th, has the following shares with the changes from October – CON 35 (nc): LAB 33 (-4): LD 20 (+2). The poll is quite old and the field-work finished a week last Tuesday. Thus the whole of the survey was completed before the Queen’s Speech the week before…
The Chancellor trails 19-29 on who would make the best PM According to Iain Dale an NOP telephone poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Edition programme on ITV found shares of Cameron 29: Brown 19: Campbell 5 when respondents were asked to say who would make the “best Prime Minister”. A striking feature of the poll is the very high level of don’t knows or refusers – getting on for half of those who took part. When asked who “had the freshest…
How serious a financial mess is the party in? While everybody is focussing on the row over Labour ordering its councillors to pay a proportion of their allowances to help it wipe out its massive debts are we missing the bigger picture – that following the loans for peerages crisis that the party is in danger of going broke? This latest move, backed by threats of disciplinary action against those councillors not obeying, follows the decision by the party to…
Can the Liberal Democrats Pull Off a Triple Triumph in North London? The Liberal Democrats have seen their support growing steadily, across Brent, Camden, Haringey and (until recently) Islington. Currently, they hold two seats in these boroughs, Hornsey & Wood Green, and Brent East, which is due to be abolished. The Liberal Democrats will be aiming to take win Islington South, together with the new seats of Brent Central and Hampstead & Kilburn, in each case, from Labour. Notwithstanding that…