BBC Radio 4’s “World at One” are planning a feature on political betting and PBC during the holiday period – probably during the “slow news” period between Christmas and the New Year. I recorded a longish discussion a couple of days ago on the past twelve months and what’s likely to be coming up in 2007 – “will there be a Brown Bounce and if so will it be sustained?“; “how will French presidential battle turn out?“and “which candidates will…
Rod Crosby asks: “Can we measure the probability of such an outcome?” Electoral System: The first graph has been compiled from Anthony Wells’ data for the new constituency boundaries. For each percentage point the LibDems might reasonably score in the range 15-25%, the outcome of the Election has been calculated for plausible Conservative LEADS ranging from 0-11%. The concept of Swing implies that the difference between the main two parties is important while their absolute level of support is not….
The State of the Parties Since the start of September, there have been 74 local by-elections on principal authorities. Of these, 41 involved the three main parties, competing with each other. Overall, the Conservatives made a net gain of 5 seats, the Liberal Democrats made a net gain of 6, the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and SNP a gain of 1 each, while Labour made a net loss of 5, Others/Independents made a net loss of 7, and the…
Should punters take note of his reservations on Brown? For the most stinging criticism of the way Downing Street sought to bury yesterday’s news about Tony Blair’s police interview you need go no further than Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun this morning. For the hugely influential political writer for Rupert Murdoch’s best-selling daily paper has no doubts about the spin operation that Number 10 mounted to try to bury the news and he is really gunning for those involved. This…
Punters now putting money on a later departure The news this afternoon that Prime Minister Tony Blair has been interviewed in the honours probe has sent the Blair laving date markets moving. The fact that he was not interviewed under caution and he was not accompanied by a lawyer is causing punters to take the view that his time at Number 10 will probably go on until the early summer. Latest betting is here. Mike Smithson
How serious a contender is the young African-American? After a quiet five weeks following the mid-term elections US politics has suddenly exploded again with the visit this week by the black contender, Barack Obama, to New Hampshire – the state where traditionally the first primary election of US presidential campaigns takes place. Suddenly everybody is talking up the prospects of the 45 year old Democrat Senator from Illinois and the UK media has now begun to pay attention. Last night…
The numbers that will do whatever you want them to do From the chart above it is possible to make just about any case you want over how David Cameron is being perceived. If you want to show that he’s moving up then just make your base point the YouGov July survey and compare with the latest numbers. If you want to show that he’s going down make your base survey February 2006. The selective approach to all sorts of…
How will Labour fund itself if the changes go through? It’s beginning to look as though the biggest political fall-out from the “cash/loans for honours” affair is going to be on the way that political parties and future elections are funded. And the latest ideas coming out of the Sir Hayden Phillips inquiry look pretty bad for Labour. For the idea is that every year each of the 3.5 million union members who opt to pay the political levy will…