What do we make of his warning on the dangers of ditching NuLab? As the chart shows there’s been a lot of movement in the John Reid Labour leadership price following his speech yesterday which is being seen widely as preparation for a bid. The furious attacks on the Home Secretary that his comments have produced are a good measure of the jumpiness of the Brown camp. Under the headline “Party anger at Reid for stirring up artificial conflict” the…
Betfair figures on their biggest political markets The betting exchange, Betfair, has just sent me some information on their top poloitical markets and, perhaps surprisingly, the most activity during 2006 was on the Italian election when Romano Prodi beat Silvano Berlusconi by the narrowest of margins. The total amount traded on the exchange on this election was £1,790,547. In second place was the election for the Liberal Democrat leadership which saw £1,000,382 being traded. All this is small beer compared…
Will Gordon move in earlier if there is no contest? After a day which has seen a lot of movement on the “When Blair will go” betting there’s another issue that could affect the markets. When would Gordon move in if he is the only candidate? Let’s assume that Blair announces his departure in the aftermath of the May 3rd elections. The statement marking the end of the Blair age would be pure theatre and knock everything else out of…
What if Tories tactically vote on the same scale as Labour supporters? All the projections, like the ones on UK Polling Report and ElectoralCalculus, on how specific poll ratings would translate into Commons seats are based on the notion of a uniform national swing (UNS). These show, broadly that just to be ahead on seats the Tories need a 5% margin on votes nationally and to get a majority then they should be aiming for a 10% lead. But all…
Where should your money go? It has become almost a New Year custom for one of the bookmakers to open a betting market on which minister will be first to be sacked/resign during that year. For 2007 everything is very much up in the air as we wait for the dramatic announcement from Tony Blair about his departure plans. But is he worth his favourite status? The price looks a bit tight to me. Is it possible that there could…
Shouldn’t there be separate polls and a separate swing calculation? Whenever a poll comes out we all rush to make the same point that the Tories Cameron’s need to have a 5% margin to win most seats and 10% to secure a majority. This is finally getting through to the markets and now a Labour majority has now taken over from a Tory one as second place in the betting on the outcome of the next election. Yet are we…
Get your entries in now for the 2007 Prize Prediction Competition Please post your entries in the comments thread below by 2359 GMT on January 3rd 2007. PLEASE DO NOT USE this thread for comments on the questions – instead use the previous threads. On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated) 1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown) 2. Leader of the Opposition…
When was the first legal political betting market? As part of my research for my book on politics and betting I am trying to find the event on which there was the first legal betting market. Betting became a mass market legal activity in October 1961 when high street betting shops were permitted for the first time. I know that there was very active betting during the 1963 Tory leadership contest after the resignation of Harold Macmillan because that was…