Survey shows the gap down to just 1% with the Chancellor in charge This morning’s Populus survey in the Times shows that all the pundits who were predicting poll doom and gloom for Labour in the polls because of Blair’s position had got it wrong. The shares with changes on January are: CON 36% (-3): LAB 33% (+1): LD 19% (+1). The fieldwork took place during the weekend when the media was full of honours stories. Even better from the…
Would Ming’s party be better off rejecting both suitors? (This is part of an article I wrote for CONtinuityIDS this morning about a hung parliament and what I think might happen if Labour just squeeze ahead on seats even though they are far behind on votes. My starting point was the CON 39%: LAB 33%: LD 22%: OTH 6% in the previous thread producing this Commons outcome – LAB 284: CON 283: LD 54: OTH 29.) My reading of Brown…
It’s rubbish to say the changes hand the advantage over to the Tories This story by Colin Brown in the Independent is typical of some of the coverage that we’ve seen over the weekend on the impact of the boundary changes on the next General Election. Labour goes into the next election still with a massive advantage – it is just that it isn’t quite as big as was before. What’s happened is that there’s now the “official” version of…
The Blurb Who’s going to win the next UK general election? Who’s going to be the next US president? The next president of France? You probably have an opinion, but are you wiling to put money on it? In this unique new book Mike Smithson, the man behind politicalbetting.com, takes a detailed look at the world of political gambling. From the basics of how and where to gamble to the characteristics of the main markets and the forms of betting…
Could Blair’s next interview be “under caution”? The paper goes on to suggest that the Prime Minister could face a third interview. Explaining the events of the past week the papers says “It was the McTernan breakthrough that led to Miss Turner and then Lord Levy being arrested in the past two weeks. In between those arrests Mr Blair was secretly quizzed at No 10. The new developments came after the News of the World revealed that a mole at…
So what’s going to happen in the East End? The East End of London will produce some of the most fascinating contests at the next general election. From the end of the First World War, until very recently, Tower Hamlets, Newham, and Barking & Dagenham were rock solid for Labour, at Parliamentary level. Indeed, from 1950 to 2005, Labour won every Parliamentary contest in these boroughs. That has all changed, and Labour faces real opposition in this part of the…
…meanwhile PBC’s audience continues to rise We’ve had a bit of a shake-up of the faces on our masthead. In come the two leading contenders for the French presidency, Alex Salmond, David Miliband, Barack Obama and Assistant Commissioner Yates. There is no one with Lib Dem link because there is no real betting interest. I had thought of a Cheeky Girl but then thought that the most important person in UK politics today is Assistant Commander Yates. As the table…
What poll news would be the “tipping point” for the Prime Minister? On the first floor of this ordinary looking office block next door to the Job Centre in Bedford is a 100 station calling centre operated by the pollster, ICM. It’s the firm’s largest facility and is where a whole or a large part of the field-work for not just ICM polls takes place. For it might come as a surprise to learn that ICM carries out surveying work…