politicalbetting.com – Page 2338 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

What chances of Prime Minister Cameron by December 31st?

19/1/2007 Editor

Is 50/1 against it happening a good value bet In a new market the bookmaker Stan James is offering 50/1 against this eventuality which puts the assessment of it happening at 2%. All betting is about value. How does your assessment of something happening compare with the betting prices available? If you think the probability of an outcome is better than the betting odds then you have a good value bet. Is this one worth taking? For Cameron to be…

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PBC on Newsnight

18/1/2007 Editor

Planned feature on Labour deputy race There should be a piece on betting on the Labour Deputy leadership on BBC2’s Newsnight programme tonight. I’ve just recorded an interview. Mike Smithson

McDonnell “within striking distance” of a bid

18/1/2007 Editor

Is he getting support by making his challenge a party referendum on Iraq? John McDonnell, the chair of the Labour parliamentary socialist Campaign group, and the only person so far to put his hat into the ring for the Labour leadership, says he’s now “within striking distance” of getting onto the ballot paper for the election later in the year. According to the Guardian the man who rebelled against Blair-Brown most in 2006 has been engaged in “a hectic schedule…

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Exclusive: Now a weekly political betting market

17/1/2007 Editor

DUE TO A TECHNICAL MESS-UP THIS POST HAS HAD TO BE RE-PUBLISHED But how comfortable are you about betting on the polls? The spread betting firm IG Index has teamed up with YouGov to open a new weekly market based on how the reputations of leading polticians will go up and down in the pollsterâ€™s BrandIndex ratings. Each week more than 11,000 on the pollsters panel complete surveys asking them to rate a range of different brands. In addition polticians…

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Is Tony trying to spin it out as long as possible?

17/1/2007 Editor

Is Q3 2007 heading for the favourite slot? With every statement by Tony Blair being scrutinised closely for hints of his precise departure date the sentiment on the betting markets, as the chart shows, is moving from a Q2 exit to a departure in Q3 – between July and and September. The latest snippet came at his monthly Downing Street press conference when he was asked if he would still be in charge at a crunch EU summit on June…

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Time to put your money on disappearing Gordon

16/1/2007 Editor

Is 0.2/1 a value price on the Chancellor? There’s been a bit of a flurry in the blogsphere today over the Chancellor’s last minute decision to be flying to India just as bad inflation figures are published and even though the trip means he cannot make an event he was due to host tonight celebrating 300 years of the union with Scotland. However the move might exasperate his opponents you have to concede that it shows what a sharp political…

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And now the big betting market of 2007…

16/1/2007 Editor

The money piles on Royale after Sarkozy’s nomination The news that the French interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, has formally clinched the ruling conservatives’ nomination for President fires the starting gun on a race that could produce the biggest UK political betting market of 2007. He now faces a tight race against the Socialist’s Segolene Royal, in the elections that take place in April and May to decide who should succeed Jacques Chircac. All the experience is that what makes a…

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What’s Gordon done to upset the Sun?

15/1/2007 Editor

Why did the paper choose this awful picture? They say a picture is worth a thousand words but the choice of this one to accompany the schooling story seems pretty amazing. What does this say about the chances of the paper giving its backing to the Chancellor at the next election? Thanks Jimbo Jones – 189 previous thread. Mike Smithson