Populus finds that “his refusal to discuss” has big public backing A total of 81% of those interviewed in a new Populus poll in the Times this morning agreed that “it does not matter if Mr Cameron smoked cannabis when he was at school or university.” In a second question 85% agreed “that he should not be expected to answer detailed questions about whether he tried drugs in his youth because all politicians are entitled to have made mistakes when…
How influential is one of Gordon’s first “victims” Frank Field, the former child poverty activist and widely regarded as one of Labour’s leading thinkers has a powerfully argued article in the Guardian this morning saying that the party needs to skip a generation and go for David Miliband for leader. Field, it will be recalled, was made Minster for Welfare Reform in 1997 but left the government the following year after furious clashes with Gordon Brown. He was the subject…
What’s the basis of the Tories being favourites? The chart shows the changing prices on the Tories and Labour winning most seats at the next general election. As can be seen Labour was seen by punters as being in a very strong position and was favourite in the betting right until May-June of last year. The Tory sentiment reached its peak at the end of October and since then the prices have got much closer. This morning you can get…
Peter the Punter’s Political Pointer In a light news week, the focus has been heavily on David Cameron’s past and the possibility he used illegal drugs. Have Dave’s ambitions gone up in a puff of smoke? Is his future on the line? Are his chances shot? Not a bit of it, if PB.com posters are anything to go by! On the evidence of last night’s thread you would have to say his prospects had been if anything enhanced, as commentators…
Has a woman ever failed when she has got so close? Before the weekend the publishers of my book now called “The Political Punter – How to make money by betting on politics”, emailed to suggest that I write an additional chapter with my calls on the 2007 French Presidential election, the 2008 White House race and the next UK General Election. No pressure there then! For by the time of the French election at the end of April and…
Is now the time to bet on a hung parliament? A new YouGov poll for today’s Sunday Times shows a small movement from the Tories to Labour and that the “others” total remains constant. These are today’s shares with comparisons on the last YouGov poll at the end of January: CON 37% (-1): LAB 32% (+1): LD 18% (nc): OTH 13% (nc). Putting these numbers into the seat calculators produces a CON 277: LAB 294: LD 47: OTH 32 seat…
Is the smoking dope admission going hurt or aid the Tories? These are some of the early front pages. What’s the impact going to be? The most positive feature for Cameron is that after weeks and weeks of hardly getting any coverage the Tories are back on the front pages. He has never denied taking drugs so the “hypocrite” charge will be hard to stick. Looking at the way Barack Obama dealt with his youthful indiscretions there really is a…
Will Gordon forgive the Environment Secretary’s QT gaffe? These two screen shots show the expression on David Miliband’s face within a few seconds of his gaffe about Gordon Brown during BBC’s Question Time on Thursday. For as we have noted before the still photograph is often much more revealing than a moving image. By going through the recording frame by frame it’s apparent that the youthful Environment Secretary realised immediately the implications of what he had said. For he had…