PBC outpoints the Brandindex market yet again

PBC outpoints the Brandindex market yet again

Are IG On The Run? When IG sportingly created a Politicians’ Popularity market, it doubtless expected to make a little profit from its collaboration with YouGov. The trading is understandably light and one suspects that most of the punting is coming from PB regulars. If so, one has to wonder if IG is making any money at all. This is the fifth week of competition and our fourth success. The other week was a draw. Last week’s main recommendation to…

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Is your MP on the “seats changing hands” list?

Is your MP on the “seats changing hands” list?

Tory lead up to 11% with Communicate Research Reproduced above is a snap-shot of the top of the page when you put the latest poll numbers into Martin Baxter’s seat calculator on his excellent Political Calculus site which many MPs in marginal seats are said to be visiting a lot at the moment. For the February poll in the Independent from Communicate Research reports a big swing to the Tories. These are the figures compared with the January survey CON…

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Polling analysis: Why don’t Labour voters like Brown?

Polling analysis: Why don’t Labour voters like Brown?

Examining the details from last week’s ICM and YouGov polls We have had to wait nearly a week for this but these are the details from the poll that has been the talk of Westminster and which has promoted a big change in the Brown price in the Labour leadership betting market. The ICM full data is from the survey last Tuesday that showed Labour 13% behind if Gordon Brown is named as leader against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib…

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Is this the man to take on Gordon, Dave & Ming?

Is this the man to take on Gordon, Dave & Ming?

What about the minister who had the guts to resign over Iraq? After a weekend which has seen repeated media calls for Brown to face a proper challenge for the leadership his price has eased further on the betting markets. Just a week ago a £100 winning Brown bet would have produced a profit of £19 – today such a wager offers £27. But the big question that those betting against the Chancellor have to ask is – if not…

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Hold the date – Monday April 16th

Hold the date – Monday April 16th

Political Betting Book Launch Party Monday 16th April – 4pm to 6pm The Strangers Restaurant, House of Commons And afterwards in St Stephens Tavern, Westminster In partnership with Politico’s Book Shop, Politicalbetting.com is happy to announce the date and venue, as above, of its annual party which this year will be combined with the launch of Mike’s book, The Political Punter, which is being published by Harriman House. The venue is made possible by the sponsorship of our MP contributors,…

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Will holding Sedgefield be Gordon’s first test?

Will holding Sedgefield be Gordon’s first test?

Blair planning to quit as an MP as soon as he steps down – report According to what is billed as an “exclusive” by the News of the World this morning Tony Blair is planning to step down as MP immediately after leaving Downing Street this summer. The paper says “He has told members of his local Labour Party in the north-east he does not want to “get in the way on the back benches..He had privately agreed to stay…

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Could this man hurt Dave’s green credentials?

Could this man hurt Dave’s green credentials?

Will the climate change sceptic win the Peers’ Tory by election? There’s a by election going on at the moment for a place in parliament which has hardly been covered in the media but which, potentially, could cause a problem for David Cameron. There are 43 candidates fighting it out to win the support from an electorate of just 47 different people and the result is due the week after next. At stake is one of the hereditary Tory places…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Can Labour Retain the North Kent Marginals? One of the funniest sights at the last election was watching Bob Marshall-Andrews conceding defeat in Medway, only to find out later that he’d retained the seat by 223 votes. This set the pattern in North Kent, as Labour managed to cling on to the marginal seats of Chatham & Aylesford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Gillingham, Dartford, and, of course, Medway. In four of these seats, the Labour majority was less than a thousand….

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