New poll puts Cameron’s party at 11% ahead An ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror this morning provides good news for both the Tories and the Lib Dems but bad news for Labour. The headline vote share with changes on the ICM Guardian poll nearly a fortnight ago are CON 40% (nc): LAB 29% (-2): LD 21% (+2). The main move is the 2 point switch from Labour to the Lib Dems. The 11% Labour deficit is the biggest the…
Can the man who went down to Bush help sell the Tory air tax? With the Tories planning to move into potentially dangerous territory with their green tax proposals one of the most intriguing stories this morning is the Sunday Telegraph report that David Cameron has persuaded the former Democrat nominee turned Oscar winner, Al Gore, to visit Britain next week. For the Tory tax plan which will progressively penalise people the more they fly could be very tricky to…
Are there similarities between Brown’s “inevitable” success and Hillary’s? Our chart this morning shows the changing betting price on Brown for the Labour leadership over the past month and illustrates how market sentiment has moved against the “near certainty” of the 0.19/1 best price that was available before the Guardian’s ICM February poll. The mood began moving back to the Chancellor but then in the past three days we have seen the price ease again. Is it now time to…
The Battle of Barnet Nothing showed the extent of Labour’s triumph in 1997 more clearly than the way they took one supposedly rock solid Conservative seat after another in North London, including Hendon and Finchley & Golders Green. Up until 1994, when they lost overall control, the Conservatives had dominated Barnet council, since its creation in 1964. At Parliamentary level, they had won every seat up until the 1997 earthquake. Barnet was divided into four constituencies up until 1997, and…
Will his own union not give his leadership bid its blessing? If Gordon did not look such a certainty for the Labour leadership then this latest news about unions backing could have been an enormous blow. For as the Mirror writer, Kevin Maguire, notes in a blog piece on the Mirror web-site there a real chance that the new super union made up of Amicus and the T&G might not give Brown its endorsement. This union, when the merger goes…
The “Third Man”, François Bayrou, continues to move forward in the polls As the latest betting prices in the French Presidential election show the big movement since the end of February has been to the so called “Third Man” in the race, the centrist candidate, François Bayrou. This follows a spate of recent polls that show he is now within striking distance of the two front-runners, the Right’s Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist party’s Ségolène Royal. This could be critical…
Is it too much to ask journalists to check the data? Reports of an interview with the Deputy Leadership candidate, Harriet Harman, were published on the BBC web-site this morning in which she quoted from a privately commissioned YouGov poll that was carried out in November. The findings, according to the article, “…show that the Harman/Brown dream ticket is the one with most appeal to “swing voters,” the poll suggests, with 15% of those surveyed saying Ms Harman would make…
What a finale for the final days of Tony Blair? On the day after the historic decision by the Commons to back a 100% elected House of Lords there’s news this morning that the Welsh and Scottish elections as well as the English local council elections on May 3rd could be scrutinised for vote tampering and fraud by a European Human Rights watchdog. If this happens the UK would be the first western democracy to have its electoral processes scrutinised…