Will the climate change sceptic win the Peers’ Tory by election? There’s a by election going on at the moment for a place in parliament which has hardly been covered in the media but which, potentially, could cause a problem for David Cameron. There are 43 candidates fighting it out to win the support from an electorate of just 47 different people and the result is due the week after next. At stake is one of the hereditary Tory places…
Can Labour Retain the North Kent Marginals? One of the funniest sights at the last election was watching Bob Marshall-Andrews conceding defeat in Medway, only to find out later that he’d retained the seat by 223 votes. This set the pattern in North Kent, as Labour managed to cling on to the marginal seats of Chatham & Aylesford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Gillingham, Dartford, and, of course, Medway. In four of these seats, the Labour majority was less than a thousand….
The internet pollster reinforces the trend picked up by ICM Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows almost no change in the overall voting intentions on the last survey by the internet pollster – but provides more evidence following this week’s ICM poll of growing doubts on the electoral appeal of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown. The headline figures are with changes on the last YouGov survey two and a half weeks ago are:- CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (nc):…
Is the US pollster right on the language that both men are adopting? This, I know, is getting into dangerous territory because two words that lead to the biggest explosions on PBC are “Frank” and “Luntz” – ever since the US pollster’s famous “focus group” screened on Newsnight during the Conservative Party conference in October 2005. In this week’s edition of the Spectator, out this morning, Luntz is the author of the cover feature on how both men use language…
Is Hoggart right about the exit? A throwaway line at the end of this morning’s Commons sketch by Simon Hoggart in the Guardian has got me thinking about Tony Blair and when he will step down. For when asked at PMQs yesterday what he hoped to be remembered for Hoggart notes the “extraordinary” fact that Blair ..”didn’t have anything prepared… he hasn’t worked out what his own legacy is..I’ll believe he’s going when he goes.” Usually a good litmus test…
What does this all mean for the Republican race? Lots of interesting polls coming out of the US at the moment on the 2008 White House race. For the latest check here. The above one, which came out a few days ago, is perhaps the most interesting in that it looks at negatives in a theoretical sense. For the Democrats the lack of negatives for a black or a female nominees looks encouraging. It’s the Republicans who have the biggest…
Do both men share the same weakness – having low flash-points? Politics is going through an appalling period which must be equally frustrating for all the parties. For we know that barring a political earthquake the next election will be the Gordon and Dave show yet even the most experienced observers cannot predict confidently how this will pan out. This encounter has been on the cards since Cameron’s likely victory in the Tory race became apparent October 2005 and yet…
On a day like today it is perhaps worth recalling one of the worst polls ever for the Tories – this the January 1995 survey for the Daily Telegraph by Gallup. This poll did not use past vote weighting to ensure a politically balanced sample. Just four days after the fieldwork for Gallup was completed ICM began their January 1995 poll for the Guardian. When the past vote weighting adjustments were made this came up with CON 30: LAB 48:…