Has Murdoch’s flagship paper abandoned Gordon?

Has Murdoch’s flagship paper abandoned Gordon?

The Times steps up the pressure on the pension row One of the aspects of media behaviour that is hurting Gordon this morning is that newspapers never like to under-exaggerate the impact of their own scoops. So the Times follows it revelations on Saturday about the Chancellor ignoring the advice of civil servants in 1997 about the so-called “£5bn pensions grab” with today’s front-page splash, reproduced here, on the possible impact of its actions on the Labour succession. And as…

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Politicians Popularity Betting: week to March 30th

Politicians Popularity Betting: week to March 30th

Small changes, small losses On the whole, I would sooner be a backer than a layer in IG’s Politicians’ Popularity market. We can pick and choose our targets, time our buys and sells, or just keep our money in the pocket if we don’t fancy the odds. Our amiable adversary, Anthony Wells, has to put up prices whether he wants to or not. He can’t just shrug his shoulders and say, for example, ‘Gordon Brown? Dunno. Too difficult this week.’…

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Could Charles Clarke be planning a kamikaze mission?

Could Charles Clarke be planning a kamikaze mission?

Would the ex-home secretary provide the “heavyweight challenge” Conscious that it is April 1st I have dismissed the Observer story “Blair: I’ll be treading the boards again” suggesting that the PM is scheduled to appear in Arthur Miller’s The Crucible at the Old Vic when he stands down. But what of the Sunday Times report that the former home secretary, Charles Clarke, is ready to stand against Brown in order to ensure that there is a proper contest? According to…

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Could the 1997 pensions raid come to haunt Gordon?

Could the 1997 pensions raid come to haunt Gordon?

Times wins two year battle to force the Treasury to hand over papers With Labour’s leadership changes only weeks away the main lead in the Times this morning has the potential to cause bother for Brown as his team try to orchestrate a succession without a real challenge. For the “quality” paper that has become NuLab’s most loyal supporter has just won a Freedom of Information act fight to get details of the advice ahead of Gordon’s famous “pensions raid”…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

How Will the Liberal Democrats Do on May 3rd? I’m reluctant to comment on this subject, as there are a couple of posters to this site who consider that I display my inherent Conservative bias by refusing to predict anything other than stunning success for the Liberal Democrats in local elections. Nevertheless, it is only right that I do so, given that I have posted about Labour and the Conservatives in the past two weeks. The Liberal Democrats’ performance in…

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The betting story of Blackpool 2005

The betting story of Blackpool 2005

How the betting records show that Hitchens was wrong What happened at the Tory conference at Blackpool in October 2005 has become one of those pivotal moments in UK politics and, as we saw, in the programme on Cameron on Channel 4 by Peter Hitchens, a number of myths have developed which don’t fit with the facts. For the above chart shows the implied probabilities based on bets betting odds of the four leading candidates from the start of the…

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The Political Punter on 18 Doughty Street at 7.30pm

The Political Punter on 18 Doughty Street at 7.30pm

I’ve just recorded a 30 minute programme on my book, The Political Punter, which will be shown tonight at 7.30 pm on the 18 Doughty Street channel. I had a good discussion with fellow blogger, Iain Dale, who presents the programme. The book itself will be launched at the PB party on April 17th. It can be pre-ordered from here. UPDATE – The programme can be view by clicking this link. Mike Smithson

Are public sector workers deserting Labour?

Are public sector workers deserting Labour?

What behind these big shifts in opinion? I’ve just come across some fascinating data on the Ipsos-Mori website which might prove to be highly significant at the next election. For as the charts show there has been a significant move by public sector workers away from Labour in a relatively short time. If they don’t return that could present a big challenge for Gordon Brown. For after the big expansion of the public sector jobs under Gordon’s management of the…

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