What’s the cumulative effect of stories like this? On top of the overnight news of the disastrous ICM poll figures for Brown there is this attack on him this morning in the Financial Times which has the potential to be seriously damaging and to stick. For a former permanent secretary to the Treasury and cabinet secretary to go on the record with an attack like this in the FT is quite unprecedented and at the very least will provide more…
ICM puts Labour 15% behind with Brown The March ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow gives the Tories their biggest share from the pollster since August 1992 and has the worst figures ever for Labour’s would-be leader, Gordon Brown. The main voting intention shares with changes on the last ICM poll nine days ago are: CON 41% (+1): LAB 31% (+2): LD 18% (-3). But when the named leader question was put – which party would respondents support in a…
Could they be following 2002 and under-estimating Le Pen? Five years ago France saw one of the biggest polling disasters ever in a western democracy when without exception all the firms surveying opinion ahead of the presidential election failed to pick up the support that the National Front’s Jean-Marie Le Pen was getting. This proved to be central because of the way the French election system works. At the first stage there is no limit on the number of candidates…
The above shows the fluctuating betting price on Brown for the Labour leadership over the past few days. As can be seen the sentiment is once again moving to the Chancellor. As this gets closer and Gordon’s election looks even more inevitable then the price will get tighter. In the past month I’ve bet £1100 on Brown at an average 0.255/1. This evening that is looking good. Mike Smithson
Will the Chancellor be bringing on Deborah again? There are two news polls in the papers this morning both of which were carried out by the internet pollster YouGov and both of which give fairly similar main voting shares. Only one of them, however, appears under the YouGov name. The main headline figures in the Sunday Times with changes on the last YouGov survey show CON 38% (+1): LAB 32% (nc): LD 16% (-1). I cannot find a figure for…
Has the left-winger been helped by the Trident rebellion? A comment on today’s thread by Pimpernel, who is usually well-informed about Labour affairs, suggests that the left-winger who was first to declare for the leadership, John McDonnell, looks set to get the required 44 nominations to be on the ballot alongside Brown. Pimpernel wrote: “I was told last night that John McDonnell is almost certain now to get enough nominations to stand, but that Meacher is likely to fall short….
The chancellor beats Cameron in the latest Newsnight focus group Following his “focus group” that was screened on Newsnight at the start of the 2005 Tory party conference the features by the US Republican pollster, Frank Luntz, have become significant political events. That one, arugably, played a key part in Cameron’s eventual victory in the party leadership contest. The last session, during the Labour conference in September, had Luntz asking those taking part to compare Brown with other potential candidates…
The Strange Death of Labour England I, and others, have commented on Labour’s ongoing decline in local government representation. What is striking, however, is just how much of England the Labour Party has now disappeared from. There are now 69 English local authorities without any Labour representation whatsoever, compared to 37 without any Liberal Democrat councillors, and 19 without any Conservatives. Councils without any Labour representation are mostly district councils, some of which are very rural. There are however, 6…