Are we heading for another Betfair mess-up?

Are we heading for another Betfair mess-up?

How will the betting exchange settle the departure date market? Anybody who had money on last November’s US MidTerms Senate market with Betfair will know what happens when the rules are not tied down tight enough. Then Betfair settled the election on the basis of a tie even though the actual outcome was that the Democrats took control of the Senate. Then the problem was the position of two senators who had not gone into the election as Democratic candidates…

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Should Miliband learn from the Gordon of 1992?

Should Miliband learn from the Gordon of 1992?

Is Miliband going to do it or not? If the young environment secretary wants a good example of the dangers of not taking leadership chances when they occur he need look no further than Gordon Brown himself. For one of the clear messages to come out of yesterday’s marathon showing of the 1992 general election results programme was the powerful position that Gordon had in the immediate aftermath of Labour’s defeat. The eventual replacement for Kinnock, John Smith, was being…

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Could the 78 year old Le Pen be the spoiler again?

Could the 78 year old Le Pen be the spoiler again?

How much are the polls understating the far-right leader? With the immigrant background of front runner in the race for the French Presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy, being made into an issue by Jean-Marie Le Pen the polls have been reporting a steady rise in support for the Front National leader. Recent surveys have had him in the region 13% to 17% which is substantially up on where he was at this stage in the 2002 elections. Last time, it will be…

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BrandIndex betting – How low can Gordon go?

BrandIndex betting – How low can Gordon go?

The week we would rather forget We said last week that it looked tough and how right we were. We did consider passing and now wish we had. It seems that the barrage of criticism which Gordon Brown is facing has seriously impacted his popularity score. It was down an astonishing 5.4 points to 56.4, his lowest ever and close to the dire 55.1 which Tony Blair recorded on February 22nd. Not that the Great Leader fared much better. He…

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Playing today – the election pollsters like to forget

Playing today – the election pollsters like to forget

When a 1% Tory polling deficit became an 8% lead On the eve of the fifteenth anniversary of John Major’s shock general election victory in 1992 the BBC Parliament channel is devoting most of its bank holiday schedule to showing the BBC’s results programme from that night. It’s available online as well as via Freeview, satellite and cable. It starts at 9am and is repeated at 2pm and 7pm. Even though it’s a decade and a half ago Nick Sparrow,…

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Should Gordon be learning from Hillary’s mistakes?

Should Gordon be learning from Hillary’s mistakes?

How a show of humility could make Brown’s succession a certainty I’ve just come across this interesting article by Michael Tomasky in the “American Prospect” describing the “air of overdog entitlement” which he believes is damaging Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the nomination. In it Tomasky praises the quality of humility that characterised her campaign to be a US senator and contrasts that with the way she, and particularly her team, are approaching the drive for the nomination. He goes on:…

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Reid “pressing Miliband to stand against Brown”

Reid “pressing Miliband to stand against Brown”

As the polls get worse the pressure for a challenge grows Against a background of new polls from YouGov and ICM showing the impact of the 1997 pension row on Brown’s current standings (see previous story) there’s the above lead in the Sunday Telegraph stating that the Home Secretary is adding his weight to those urging David Miliband to challenge for the leadership when Tony steps down. For a long period, of course, Reid himself was seen as a possible…

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Sunday poll gloom for Gordon (Updated 0315)

Sunday poll gloom for Gordon (Updated 0315)

ICM and YouGov report on the damage of the pension row Two polls by YouGov and ICM that will appear tomorrow in Rupert Murdoch’s Sunday papers, the News of the World and the Sunday Times show the damage to Gordon Brown’s reputation that the row over the 1997 pension changes has caused. Reports of what’s in the papers are just emerging but these seem to be the main highlights:- GB “Good or bad chancellor?” 52% of those surveyed by YouGov…

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