Is there money to be made looking for short-term movements? After the May 3rd elections at least one other spread-betting firm will be offering a general election seat market to run alongside that from Spreadfair (see latest price above) on how many MPs each of the main parties will get next time. If the next election follows previous ones then this form of betting and these prices will play a key part in the next two years or so. For…
The Guardian steps up the pressure with today’s main splash With just four weeks to go to May 9th – one of the the dates being touted for Tony Blair’s historic exit announcement – the Guardian ratchets up the anti-Brown coronation rhetoric with its front page lead this morning. Under the headline “Blairite plot to lure Miliband into leadership contest” the paper’s Patrick Wintour reports that MPs would be encouraged to declare their support for the environment secretary on the…
Will Bescanot prevent Sego getting to the final run-off? This is Olivier Besancenot, the 33 year old postman who might have a crucial part to play in the French presidential election a week on Sunday. He’s standing for the Ligue communiste révolutionnaire (LCR), the French section of the Fourth International and five years ago he gained 1.2 million votes or 4.25% of the vote. This was several times the gap that the far right leader, Le Pen, had over the…
How will the betting exchange settle the departure date market? Anybody who had money on last November’s US MidTerms Senate market with Betfair will know what happens when the rules are not tied down tight enough. Then Betfair settled the election on the basis of a tie even though the actual outcome was that the Democrats took control of the Senate. Then the problem was the position of two senators who had not gone into the election as Democratic candidates…
Is Miliband going to do it or not? If the young environment secretary wants a good example of the dangers of not taking leadership chances when they occur he need look no further than Gordon Brown himself. For one of the clear messages to come out of yesterday’s marathon showing of the 1992 general election results programme was the powerful position that Gordon had in the immediate aftermath of Labour’s defeat. The eventual replacement for Kinnock, John Smith, was being…
How much are the polls understating the far-right leader? With the immigrant background of front runner in the race for the French Presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy, being made into an issue by Jean-Marie Le Pen the polls have been reporting a steady rise in support for the Front National leader. Recent surveys have had him in the region 13% to 17% which is substantially up on where he was at this stage in the 2002 elections. Last time, it will be…
The week we would rather forget We said last week that it looked tough and how right we were. We did consider passing and now wish we had. It seems that the barrage of criticism which Gordon Brown is facing has seriously impacted his popularity score. It was down an astonishing 5.4 points to 56.4, his lowest ever and close to the dire 55.1 which Tony Blair recorded on February 22nd. Not that the Great Leader fared much better. He…
When a 1% Tory polling deficit became an 8% lead On the eve of the fifteenth anniversary of John Major’s shock general election victory in 1992 the BBC Parliament channel is devoting most of its bank holiday schedule to showing the BBC’s results programme from that night. It’s available online as well as via Freeview, satellite and cable. It starts at 9am and is repeated at 2pm and 7pm. Even though it’s a decade and a half ago Nick Sparrow,…