But the Tories return to 42% on the named leader question The May Populus survey for the Times, out this morning shows a biggish swing from the Lib Dems to Labour but with the Tory share remaining static. The headline numbers with changes on last month are CON 37% (nc): LAB 33% (+4): LD 17% which, if repeated at a general election would produce a hung parliament with Labour having most seats. But when the “named leader” question was asked…
Will McDonnell manage to get the 44 nominations? After this afternoon’s announcement that Michael Meacher is standing aside to let John McDonnell run the big issue is whether he’ll get the required 44 nominations to be on the ballot alongside Brown. He has until Thursday and will be helped, no doubt by his assured performance in last night’s debate. He’ll also attract a fair degree of media attention in the coming days and my guess is that people are going…
How is the new “humble” Brown going down with the voters? So far we have not had a proper polling reaction to the “wall-to-wall” Brown coverage that seems to have been dominating the TV screens since the Chancellor launched his campaign for the leadership last Friday. Yesterday’s YouGov poll was carried out last Thursday and Friday when Blair’s historic departure speech was dominating the headlines and only a proportion of the pollster’s internet voting panel will have completed their online…
Could tonight’s debate have any impact? With John McDonnell and Michael Meacher due to resume their discussions tomorrow on which one should seek to be the left-wing nominee for the Labour leadership they are joining Gordon Brown tonight for what could be the first and last debate of the campaign. With nominations due to close on Thursday a key question tonight could be which one will end up in a better position. So although Gordon is there the real attention…
Will the anti-Blair factions move back when Gordon’s in charge All the focus from this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has been on the relationship between Labour and the Tories and what happens when the party leaders are named. One number, however, is missing from the on-line reports of the survey – and this could make grim reading for the Lib Dems. The main numbers, as reported in the previous article had CON 38, LAB 34, LD 15,…
The Lib Dems drop to 15% Reports are coming out about new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times that has Labour at its highest rating for 8 months – on 34%. The figures are compared with the last YouGov poll taken before and on the May 3rd elections are: CON 38% (+1): LAB 34% (+2): LD 15% (-1). According to Iain Dale’s blog Labour slips back to 32% if Brown is leader, ten points behind Cameron’s Tories who rise to…
Why you should always look at the survey dates? BBC’s Newsnight programme made a big deal last night about an “exclusive poll” that it had commissioned on perceptions of Gordon Brown and David Cameron. This was how the programme billed the survey on its website “Friday – Gordon Brown launches his leadership campaign; and Newsnight has a specially commissioned poll.” It was presented as though it was up to date information although there was a tell-tale line in very small…
Will “Gordon Brown for Britain” go down well with the voters? This is Betfair’s election outcome market and shows how punters have been fairly consistent in their view over the past year that we are heading for a hung parliament. The only change has been the move by the Tories into the second place position. The events of this week have yet to have a significant impact. What is likely to cause a change is the first batch of polls…