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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

15/6/2007 Editor

Is London Really So Good for the Conservatives? Lots of commentators have drawn attention to the comparatively strong performance of the Conservatives in London, in recent year. From winning outright control of four boroughs in 1998, the Conservatives advanced to eight in 2002, and fourteen in 2006. Over the same period, they have increased their number of councillors from 538 to 785, the largest of any party, and regained ten Parliamentary seats, a third of the gains they have made…

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How much will Question Time affect the outcome?

15/6/2007 Editor

Was Cruddas the night’s big loser? The above prices (as at 5am) show the impact of last night’s Question Time programme on BBC 1 featuring all the candidates for Labour’s deputy leadership. By a long way the big loser on the evening was John Cruddas who has now moved out from about 7/1 with Betfair to the latest 12/1. The Ladbrokes price will almost certainly move out when their offices open this morning. The comments by Cruddas on his housing…

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Is this how Scotland becomes a general election issue?

14/6/2007 Editor

How’s Gordon going to deal with challenges like these? Whenever it’s suggested that the West Lothian Question or Scottish devolution could become an election issue and a problem for Brown people point to polls that show most voters don’t regard Scottish governmental arrangements as being very important to them. Certainly that’s true of the theoretical constitutional issues but what about the consequence of having different levels of public services north and south of the border? Two stories in this morning’s…

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Did anybody get on this certainty?

13/6/2007 Editor

Sadly it has been wirthdrawn (I wonder why?) I’ve just noticed this amazing bet from Ladbrokes on the Bestbetting odds search engine. A price of 5/2 against Gordon become PM during 2007 seemed to good to be true – and it was! But did anybody manage to get a bet on? It would be great if someone did. Mike Smithson

Labour getting closer on the Commons spread markets

13/6/2007 Editor

Why I’m continuing to keep my money on Gordon For me the most satisfactory form of general election betting is to buy and sell the number of Commons seats on the spread betting markets. Here the projected seat numbers at the next general election are traded like stocks and shares and you don’t have to wait until the election takes place before you can pocket any winnings. Until now the only Commons spread market that is operating is the above…

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Could Thompson soon be the front-runner in the GOP race?

12/6/2007 Editor

But will he stand up to the scrutiny that being favourite will bring? The latest polls on the race for next year’s Republican nomination show that the attorney, turned movie star, turned politician, Fred Thompson, has been making even more progress against front-runner, Rudy Giuliani. Even though he is waiting until July 4th before making a declaration Rasmussen has him polling at 24% – exactly the same as Giuliani. Another poll, LA Times-Bloomberg, has Thompson moving up by six full…

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Introducing Politicalbetting “recorded wagers”?

12/6/2007 Editor

Will Lynne Featherstone hold on in Hornsey? Those who followed yesterday’s thread will have seen a fierce argument between two long-standing contributors, Mark Senior and Gladstone, over whether the Lib Dems will hold onto Hornsey and Wood Green at the next general election. Mark has laid a bet 5/1 on the possibility that the incumbent who took the seat in 2005, Lynne Featherstone, (pictured above promoting a soup kitchen initiative) will fail to hold onto the seat. So if she…

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Has Jackie Ashley become a political betting convert?

11/6/2007 Editor

But what do we think of her tips on the deputy race? Over the weekend a site regular brought to my attention Jackie Ashley’s column in the Guardian last Friday when she attempted to look at the Labour deputy race from the punters’ point of view. We were told that Hilary Benn was the bookies favourite; John Cruddas had at one stage been at 150/1 but the price had tightened sharply while Harriet Harman was, in Jackie’s own words “worth…

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