How punters reacted to PMQs on Jan 11th 2006? Just five days after Charles Kennedy resigned in January 2006 Ming Campbell took, for the first time as interim leader, his party’s leader’s slot at Prime Minister’s Questions. This was a key moment in his career and, for once, all eyes were on the prospective head of the UK’s third party when he got to his feet for the allocated two questions. Alas Ming came to what should have been a…
A new poll in the Sunday Times has the Tories at 37%, Labour at 35% and the Lib Dems down 14%. This follows a period when because of the transition Labour has squeezed the other parties out of the news. The last YouGov Poll was taken when the Tories were getting a lot of coverage because of the grammar row. It is my theory that the more Cameron is in the news, even if he is being attacked, the better…
Can Labour secure a fourth term? Along with several other pb-ers I spent yesterday at the Central Hall Westminster at the British Polling Council conference on the general election. As well as people from the site the partipants included academics, political journalists, civil servants, representatives from the parties as well as almost every leading figure in the UK polling industry. Lots of ideas and data emerged which will be featured in future posts. Today’s piece is limited by me being…
Is London Really So Good for the Conservatives? Lots of commentators have drawn attention to the comparatively strong performance of the Conservatives in London, in recent year. From winning outright control of four boroughs in 1998, the Conservatives advanced to eight in 2002, and fourteen in 2006. Over the same period, they have increased their number of councillors from 538 to 785, the largest of any party, and regained ten Parliamentary seats, a third of the gains they have made…
Was Cruddas the night’s big loser? The above prices (as at 5am) show the impact of last night’s Question Time programme on BBC 1 featuring all the candidates for Labour’s deputy leadership. By a long way the big loser on the evening was John Cruddas who has now moved out from about 7/1 with Betfair to the latest 12/1. The Ladbrokes price will almost certainly move out when their offices open this morning. The comments by Cruddas on his housing…
How’s Gordon going to deal with challenges like these? Whenever it’s suggested that the West Lothian Question or Scottish devolution could become an election issue and a problem for Brown people point to polls that show most voters don’t regard Scottish governmental arrangements as being very important to them. Certainly that’s true of the theoretical constitutional issues but what about the consequence of having different levels of public services north and south of the border? Two stories in this morning’s…
Sadly it has been wirthdrawn (I wonder why?) I’ve just noticed this amazing bet from Ladbrokes on the Bestbetting odds search engine. A price of 5/2 against Gordon become PM during 2007 seemed to good to be true – and it was! But did anybody manage to get a bet on? It would be great if someone did. Mike Smithson
Why I’m continuing to keep my money on Gordon For me the most satisfactory form of general election betting is to buy and sell the number of Commons seats on the spread betting markets. Here the projected seat numbers at the next general election are traded like stocks and shares and you don’t have to wait until the election takes place before you can pocket any winnings. Until now the only Commons spread market that is operating is the above…