politicalbetting.com

What can we tell from last night’s results….? Camden LBC, Haverstock LD Matt Sanders 1160 (43.4; -0.2), Lab 1000 (37.4; +3.0), Green 299 (11.2; +0.4), Con 213 (8.0; -3.2). Majority 160. Turnout 34.1%. LD gain from Lab. Last fought 2006. Craven DC, Cowling Con 351 (64.3; +47.4), Ratepayer 136 (24.9; +24.9), Ind 59 (10.8; -34.3), [Ind (0.0; -38.1)]. Majority 215. Turnout 31.2%. Con gain from Ind. Last fought 2004. Hounslow LBC, Hanworth Park Con 1054 (41.1; -3.3), Lab 729 (28.4;…

Read More Read More

Or should we stick with the traditional Thursday? As part of the package of constitutional changes unveiled by Gordon Brown recently, possibly moving the day of general elections received a cameo appearance. It has been the convention for decades now that UK elections are held on Thursdays, although this is not laid down by statute. Election days vary widely around the world, with Canada on Monday, the USA and Israel on Tuesday, the Netherlands on Wednesday and Australia on Saturday….

Read More Read More

Argentina may be set for female President Current Argentine President Néstor Kirchner has announced that he will not be seeking re-election in October’s poll – but his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be standing instead, and polls currently give her 45% of the vote, over 30 points clear of her nearest challenger. Argentina has a slightly complicated two-ballot system for its presidential election, not exactly like the systems used in France, Russia, or Brazil. Comparisons may be drawn with…

Read More Read More

Do Labour need to do more than just hold on? By an accident of timing the fieldwork for both ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian and the Communicate Research survey for the Independent is due to start a week tomorrow when, no doubt, the results of the Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by elections will be dominating the news. So with its new leader being in office for little more than a fortnight Labour desperately needs to keep up the momentum…

Read More Read More

Please help to keep the site server running smoothly by continuing today’s discussion here. A couple of international snippets that may be of interest: an article from Bloomberg on McCain’s woes, who looks completely out of it now – and when is Thompson going to formally declare? and news that former French PM de Villepin faces investigation over the Clearstream affair (a bid to discredit Sarkozy) – do the French experts on pb.com think that Chirac will ever face prosecution…

Read More Read More

Can Brown improve on last week? Will Cameron look the better of the big two leaders again? Can Ming come up with another “zinger”? This is the live comments thread for PMQs. Live streaming is available from the following: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/bbc_parliament/default.stm Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor Mike Smithson returns on 16th July Paul Maggs runs The Election Game – click on the logo to email for more info.

Can Gordon improve on last week? The highlight of today in politics is likely to be the second Prime Minister’s Questions with Brown at the despatch box, with the key question being whether or not Gordon can improve on a shaky start at his first outing. Also today the PM is expected to outline his draft parliamentary agenda to the House, although this is not expected to include a commitment to AV, despite the lively debate on pb.com. Elsewhere, there’s…

Read More Read More

Please help to ease the load on the site server by continuing today’s discussion on AV, Southall, and other topics here. Many thanks. Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor Mike Smithson returns on 16th July