The FT is reporting that Dorries might delay her resignation with the suggestion that she’ll try to cause the maximum problems as she can for Sunak. Certainly, it would be easier for the Tories if the by-elections were all held on the same day and the bad news for Sunak would last only a few days. By deferring her exit Dorriest could ensure that there are two weekends of bad headlines for the PM. I just wonder whether she might…
For all his hopes the betting markets give Johnson. a very small chance of actually being the election leader. It is hard to see after the weekend’s event things getting better for the man who beat Corbyn in 2019. But there will be more challenges to Sunak in different forms. Johnson blames him for so much of what has happened in the past year. Mike Smithson
Tuesday’s papers are just coming in and inevitably the public row between Sunak and Johnson is dominating the front pages. There hasn’t been any specific polling but I’m starting to think that Sunak is coming out of this well. He stopped Johnson going too far on the honours list row and I have been impressed by his responses. We have seen a very different Sunak – one who is ready to take on his predecessor but one and my guess…
The above Tweets from the leading political scientist Prof Rob Ford are a big reminder of how Johnson was viewed when he was PM. He wasn’t popular and his claim to fame for his GE2019 success was down o the fact he was facing Corbyn. The on-the-day poll by Opinium of GE2019, discussed here before, shows that the big driver of LAB to CON switchers was Corbyn. I think the comparison with TMay sums it up. Mike Smithson
When I went on holiday a week ago there was no hint that we could have three Westminster by-elections on the table on my return. Whatever it is there seems to be a trend of big political developments happening when I’m on holiday and this has become something of a joke amongst the PB team. Mid-Bedfordshire, which is adjacent to my own seat in Bedford, has been on the cards for a by-election over the past six months with the…
A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow. TSE
Success equals performance minus anticipation is mantra I was taught, given what the plurality of Brits expect halving inflation means then Rishi Sunak isn’t going to get much reward in the polls. Perhaps with the cost of living crisis so bad most voters couldn’t afford to pay attention on how inflation works. A recovering economy might underpin a polling boost for the Tories between now and election day but if the voters do not realise it, it might put the…
The bad news for Boris Johnson is that they support his decision to quit. This isn’t the polling for a country itching for a Boris Johnson comeback. A fun betting market would be how many Tory MPs quit with immediate effect bt Monday because we’ve just had our third one in the last day but I think Rishi Sunak will be privately happy that so many Boris Johnson loyalists are quitting. It makes managing the Parliamentary Tory Party marginally easier….