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A guest article by Rod Crosby AV – Labour’s Lock on Power? Since the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader the polls have consistently shown a Hung Parliament as the most likely result of the next Election. Apart from the obvious practical difficulties that would follow, such an outcome would arise amid novel and explosive circumstances. • An unelected (and unselected) Prime Minister has lost his inherited parliamentary majority at his first electoral test. • The Conservatives are ahead…

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After two months of confusion, Labour & Plaid sign a deal It’s now over two months since the Welsh Assembly elections, but finally a majority coalition government has been put together that sees the Welsh Nationalists in power at Cardiff for the first time, although Cabinet formation has been delayed by Rhodri Morgan’s visit to hospital. It’s not uncommon for governments in some European countries to take 2-3 months to put together, and Wales did a fair impression of Austria…

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Will it be their first by-election gain since 1982? Two by-elections are being held on Thursday 19th July. If the markets are to be believed, Sedgefield, where voters are choosing a successor to Tony Blair following his appointment as envoy for the Quartet in the Middle East, looks a shoo-in for Labour, as they are trading at just 1.04 on Betfair. Labour are defending a majority of over 18 thousand, with Blair taking 59% of the vote in 2005. However,…

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Brown just holding on to his Bounce The UK Polling Report has news of an ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror which has Labour at 37%, the Conservatives at 35, and the Lib Dems at 17. However it doesn’t look as though this poll is available online at present. The Baxter and Wells seat forecasting models produce Labour majorities of 58 and 42. Elsewhere in the Sunday papers, the Independent reports that Blair aides think Levy will be charged over…

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A guest article by Mighty Fella There is no such thing a Tipping Line for political betting but it occurs to me that PB.com operates in some respects like one and I have occasionally thought that maybe this aspect of its activities should be formalized and converted into a regular service. Tipping lines are associated normally but not exclusively with horseracing and fall into two broad categories. Subscription lines typically charge a flat rate fee, perhaps quarterly or annually, for…

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Or can he win an election in his own right? Gordon Brown’s arrival at Number Ten without winning a General Election recalls the other Prime Ministers since World War Two who likewise didn’t enter Downing Street via the ballot box. Their record is mixed, and Brown will be hoping that he doesn’t join the list of “fag-end” PMs who merely finished a term that someone else had won, and when their own turn came to face the voters, ended up…

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Where Do the Liberal Democrats Go From Here? Despite what some Conservatives believe, the Liberal Democrats are not about to disappear. They have almost 4,500 local council seats, and regularly obtain 25-30% of the projected national vote share in local elections. In addition, regardless of their national poll ratings, there are at least 40 Parliamentary seats that are, in my opinion, unloseable for them, because of the large personal votes which their incumbent MPs enjoy. Nevertheless, if they don’t face…

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