What will Cameron be able to do with this?

What will Cameron be able to do with this?

Is the Guardian splash a gift to the beleaguered Tories? An extraordinary piece of journalistic digging by the Guardian this morning suggests that since Brown became PM on June 27th his government been able to announce new spending of £39.32 billion pounds and that this flurry of activity has been behind the bounce in the polls. The new spending includes an extra £7.7bn for defence to 2011; £15bn to improve the railways; £4bn extra spending on early years education over…

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Good and bad news for Dave from the ICM detail

Good and bad news for Dave from the ICM detail

Could Brown risk an October election based on this data? The full detail from yesterday’s ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror is now on the ICM website and, as I usually do, have clipped the voting intention the above voting intention data categories by what respondents said they did last time. My rationale is that the views of declared actual voters and how their allegiances are churning give a different picture compared with the headline figures – which include the…

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Punters not convinced by YouGov’s 10% Labour lead?

Punters not convinced by YouGov’s 10% Labour lead?

Why are the polls failing to move the markets? Before the 2005 general election there was not a single period when Labour had the poll leads it is enjoying today when the Commons seat spread betting markets were showing anything other than that Blair was heading for a substantial majority. Looking over the records an average Labour poll lead of about 6% prompted the markets to show a Labour majority in the 70-100 seat range. Yet today with an average…

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….and it’s six Gordons from ICM

….and it’s six Gordons from ICM

The polling feast continues.. Normally this is a time of year when we have to put up with a polling-free period. In August 2006 just two national surveys were carried out and we had to wait until the final week of the month before we got the figures. This year, with a new prime minister and change in the air, the polls are coming thick and fast and on top of the Sun’s Ipsos-Mori survey, the YouGov poll for the…

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It’s TEN Gordons from YouGov

It’s TEN Gordons from YouGov

But how much is down to not weighting by likelihood to vote? A new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times has Labour 10% ahead and the vote shares back at 2001 general election levels. These are the shares compared with the last YouGov poll at the end of July – CON 32% (nc): LAB 42%(+1): LD 14% (-2) So the big change has been a drop in the Lib Dem share to 14% – a level they were at in…

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Will Gord U-turn over the referendum?

Will Gord U-turn over the referendum?

Ipsos-Mori finds 81% in favour the EU treaty being put to the vote The second part of today’s Ipsos-Mori poll for the Sun asked about whether there should be a referendum on the EU treaty and how people would vote. The above are the findings to both questions – an overwhelming majority wanting a referendum and a much closer view on what voters would do in the event of such a ballot. The hard message for the government is that…

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Will Mori dampen the general election speculation?

Will Mori dampen the general election speculation?

Labour’s lead down a point to 5% The August poll by Ipsos-Mori in the Sun shows a slight reduction in the Labour lead compared with July and might just take the heat out of the 2007 general election suggestions. The shares are with changes on last month – CON 33%(-2): LAB 38%(-3): LDM 15%(nc). The striking feature of the numbers is the sharp cut-back in the the proportion saying they would vote for the three main parties – 86% in…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

The Importance of Leeds One favourite piece of lazy journalism is to assert that “the Conservatives have no MPs/Councillors in the main Northern cities” and that, without these, they cannot win a Parliamentary majority. In fact, there are hundreds of Conservative councillors in the urban North, and the main Northern cities usually cited, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, and Sheffield are irrelevant to the Conservatives’ Parliamentary chances. The Conservatives could win an overall majority of 100, without coming close to winning a…

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