Why is it that the lead amongst 2005 voters is only about 3%? One of the great new polling sources that we have now that we didn’t have last time is a breakdown, segment by segment, of people’s current intentions based on what they did at the last election. This approach was pioneered by ICM just twelve months ago and now all the telephone pollsters present their detailed data in this way. This gives poll-watchers a whole range of new…
Do these make the general election decision even harder? Having worked for BBC national news for nearly a decade and a half and having been closely involved in politics since I cannot remember a Friday morning when a batch of local councils by elections has made the headlines. The only times the news editors have taken notice of these contests in the past has been when the BNP or similar parties has made progress. Maybe it was the revelation at…
Above is the front page of the Guardian as featured on the SkyNews website. But there’s no reference anywhere, it seems, to the numbers that are apparently on the front page. Has anybody got a copy? Does anybody know? Mike Smithson
What margin would trigger a visit to see the Queen? For all the bravado, leaking, teasing and wind-ups Gord is not going to risk his premiership on the basis of current polling evidence. What he needs to see is how the public react after they’ve been exposed to the Tories and, in particular, to the big speech by David Cameron. For much of the poll movement to Labour has been driven by the almost total news blackout from the Tories…
Or is Ken certain of a third successive victory? This morning’s news that Boris Johnson had won an overwhelming victory in the Tory “open primary” to choose its mayoral candidate will hardly come as a surprise. In races like this it’s the most well-known that usually clinches it and there could have been little doubt that the former Spectator editor fits that category. But what are his chances? Is it possible that he could give Labour’s unopposed choice, Ken Livingstone,…
Will this impede Brown’s election momentum? Reproduced here is the front page of this morning’s Times showing the lead story which won’t please Number 10. For Labour’s new leader is accused of “rehashing old phrases from Bill Clinton and Al Gore without attribution in his first speech to a Labour conference as Prime Minister”. The report describes a study of Brown conference speech on Monday which “shows a marked similarity between parts of Mr Brown’s speech and big set-piece speeches…
What do you think of the “2nd best 2nd worst rule”? With so many polls showing such different pictures I’ve now adopted my own “rule of thumb” for working out what the big picture is. Basically I take the latest surveys from YouGov, Mori, ComRes, ICM and Populus and take the second lowest share for Labour and the second highest shares for the Tories and Lib Dems. Where two or more pollsters are showing the same high figure I take…
Why are the spread markets not reacting? The above shows the latest commons seat spread prices from two of the main markets – IGIndex and Spreadfair – and from where I sit these levels simply do not fit with the polling evidence. We are nearly at the stage, surely, where it’s going to be very difficult for Brown and Labour to pull back from the general election challenge. Last night’s stunning poll showing C33-LAB44-LD13 will almost certainly prove to be…