Would Gord have benefited from a proper contest?

Would Gord have benefited from a proper contest?

Does a leadership election hone up the candidates’ campaigning skills? Just looking back at how the Lib Dem hopefuls, Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne, performed on Sunday’s Andrew Marr show it struck me what a good training ground for a general election running for the leader of your party is. The normal political dialogue outside election times does not provide the opportunities for the kind of exposure and probing that a leadership election demands and those who have been through…

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Who’ll come out of this row best?

Who’ll come out of this row best?

Will a U-turn help Gord or not? An issue on which the Lib Dems have been making the running, the plan to take away 5% of school budget surpluses, was used by David Cameron at PMQs yesterday for his first line of attack against Gordon Brown. The Tory leader said that it was “unjust, an ill-conceived idea” which undermines governors’ authority. This morning the Independent carries a report, part of which is reproduced above, that the Prime Minister is planning…

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Jack will be loving this

Jack will be loving this

But does the Guardian know who he is? The Jack W mystery is now being featured on the Guardian web-site. What a tribute to him and his role here over the past three years. I would love to share the secret with everybody but I did make a promise to Jack. Mike Smithson

Will we see the “big clunking fist” today?

Will we see the “big clunking fist” today?

Is there scope for exploiting Tory splits on the EU? This lunchtime we’ll see the third PMQ clash between Brown and Cameron since the election plan was ditched. Dave won the first encounter in October emphatically and most observers gave it to him last week on points. What will happen today? Could this be the moment that Gord hits back? Could he start to turn the EU referendum argument back against the Tory leader by pointing to the demands from…

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Are the Tories set to become favourites again?

Are the Tories set to become favourites again?

The changing view of punters since May 2005 The chart shows the changing fortunes of the two main parties since last time on the main general general election market – who will win most seats. The betting prices are represented as an implied probability rather than the actual odds because it shows trends better. This is not about whether the Tories or Labour win an absolute majority but on which of them finishes up with the most seats. This is…

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Will there be private LD member polls?

Will there be private LD member polls?

Could there be a repeat of the 2006 private polling farce? Word has reached me that there is a possibility that the internet pollster, YouGov might be commissioned to carry out a survey of Lib Dem members on the Clegg-Huhne contest. Although previous YouGov surveys of Lib Dem and Labour members have achieved nothing like the accuracy of the firm’s Tory leadership polls they could provide a reasonable pointer to those planning to bet. Would they show that Clegg is…

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Can the Tories stay above 40%?

Can the Tories stay above 40%?

Who’ll be up and who’ll be down in the next polling round? In the first 13 days of October polls there were nine separate national polls showing general election voting intentions. In the second 13 days it looks as if we will have had none and the signs are that there won’t be anything until the weekend at the earliest. Part of the problem is that many newspapers spent up their polling budgets in that intense period as all the…

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It’s 9/2 that Brown will concede a referendum

It’s 9/2 that Brown will concede a referendum

Does that sound like a value bet? With the pressure on Gord to call a referendum the EU Treaty likely to intensify this week the bookmaker, Victor Chandler, is now accepting bets on whether or not he will go back on his refusal. The firm have priced up a referendum happening before the end of next year at 9/2. It is 1/8 that the UK ratifies the treaty without it being put to a public vote. My guess is that…

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