Why was Huhne favourite for so long last time? In my book, The Political Punter I relate in some detail some of the betting market moves during the 2006 Lib Dem leadership contest. It will be recalled that the big surprise was how the money was going on Chris Huhne, who was then relatively unknown and at the time had then been an MP for less than a year. For several weeks he was the odds-on favourite. One clue comes…
Could he be the Lib Dems’ Alex Salmond? Nominations open today for the race to succeed Ming as Lib Dem leader and will close on 31st October. (Voting closes 15th December with the winner unveiled two days later.) So far, the only news among possible runners is that Simon Hughes won’t be standing. Much of the attention, and cash in the markets, has been focused on Nick Clegg (1.57 on Betfair) and last time’s runner-up Chris Huhne (currently trading at…
Hughes rules himself out of the race Now that Campbell has joined IDS in the select band of party leaders never to fight an election, the race for his successor has well and truly begun. Voting will close on 15th December with the new leader being unveiled two days later, and Simon Hughes has been the first big name to announce that he won’t be standing. The Betfair market is now open (although bizarrely the opening show featured Danny Alexander…
“Did you wield the dagger?” journalists ask Cable & Hughes Campbell resigns as leader with immediate effect “in the interests of the party” Cable to be acting leader Timetable for leadership election to be announced tomorrow No public statement from Ming tonight Privately he admits that he couldn’t turn around the poll ratings Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor Mike Smithson returns full time on 18th October Paul Maggs runs The Election Game – click on the logo to email…
Will Campbell be an early casualty of the 2007 non-election? Lib Dem Deputy Leader Vincent Cable has told the BBC that Ming’s leadership is “under discussion” but not under threat – so how long has Ming got left now? If he is on the way out, who will succeed him? Clegg and Huhne are seen as the frontrunners, but a Salmond-style Kennedy comeback is receiving some mentions – or might the party go for a woman leader? What difference would…
Or are Labour still on course for a fourth term? The last couple of weeks have been among the most eventful in recent British politics, with the election that never was, the “magpie” pre-budget report, Brown’s mauling at PMQs and the polls changing rapidly from an 11-point Labour lead to a 7-point Conservative one. The key question is whether we have reached a tipping point and it’s all downhill for Labour from now on, with Brown following Callaghan and Douglas-Home…
Do his polling advisers need to delve deeper? In trying to explain how Gordon Brown and Labour have got into their current mess there appears to have been one driving force – the massive Labour poll leads that at one stage touched 14%. The party believed that everything was going its way and, inevitably, there was pressure to convert the apparent surge in support into a fourth successive Labour victory. Yet were the poll leads ever as big as they…
Best Conservative score since 1992 with ICM An ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph has the Conservatives on 43, Labour on 36, and the Lib Dems on 14. Changes on the previous ICM poll are +5, -2, -2, representing a swing of 3.5% to the Tories. However, Brown still leads Cameron 52-32 on the strongest leader question, while Labour leads by 47-36 on the economy. Other findings are that 66 per cent of those surveyed want a referendum on the…