What if the fieldwork had taken place yesterday? As has been noted often here a key element when assessing a poll is the timing of the field-work. In fast-moving political situations like we’ve seen this week the “when” can play a critical role. So the overnight YouGov poll in today’s Telegraph has to be looked at in terms of when it took place. The figures, as discussed on the previous thread, were with changes on the previous survey from the…
Is it as “devastating as we were led to believe? Earlier this evening this appeared on the Daily Telegraph blog – “Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Telegraph is, to quote our polling guru Anthony King, ‘one of the most devastating I’ve ever seen’. That’s quite a verdict from a man who has been looking at these things for four decades.” This set peoples’ imaginations racing especially as the last poll to publish, ComRes on Tuesday, had the Tories 13% ahead…
To ease pressure on the server can we continue our discussions here. Mike Smithson
Is that a value bet or not? The above picture is a screen-shot from a TV interview Harriet gave within hours of the news coming out of the £5000 donation to her deputy campaign from David Abraham via a proxy. That was a couple of days ago when the stress was clearly showing. Since then Brown has hardly given her the ringing endorsement that she surely could have hoped for from her boss. Today, in her role as leader of…
Could there be a local general election impact? I don’t think anybody has picked up that all Labour’s current problems seem to have emanated in the same place – Newcastle upon Tyne. Thus the headquarters of the troubled bank which continues to cause anguish for the party, Northern Rock, is based in the city and is one of its biggest employers. It was at the Inland Revenue and Customs offices on Tyneside that the data on the 25 million people…
How can the winner possibly do better than Cable? With the Lib Dem leadership contest coming into its final phase could the party be facing a big challenge when the new man gets elected and takes his place at Prime Minister’s Questions? For after another rivetting performance by Cable this lunchtime it’s hard to see how either Clegg or Huhne are going to be able to do anything like as well. The biggest laughs today came with Cable’s comment about…
What is it about Labour’s friends in the North? Even when things are going well for a Prime Minister a Wednesday morning is probably not the best of times to be around Number 10. Over-shadowing everything when parliament is in session is Prime Minister’s Questions – the weekly ritual that has to be surmounted and where the post-holder can only guess at what he is likely to be asked. Gordon’s usual day, we are told, starts very early with a…
Could supporting Cruddas be a way showing unease about Brown? My nomination for Iain Dale’s political blogger of the year (won incidentally by Iain Dale himself – funny that given he was the promoter and vote counter) was Paul Linford. To my mind Paul provides the best insights into Labour party matters and this evening he speculates about who would become deputy leader if Harriet finds she cannot carry on because of the donation scandal. Clearly Harman would be out…