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Who’ll do be best getting supporters out on Thursday?

30/12/2007 Mike Smithson

Is anybody bold enough to call the Iowa caucuses? Leaving aside the probability of a very major shock then the next resident of the White House will be one of the seven contenders featured above. And for each next Thursday night could be crucial. For one or two victory in their party’s caucuses is absolutely central if they are to stay in the race. For others a convincing performance could be a knock-out blow to other challengers. But how can…

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Boost for Labour in new YouGov poll

30/12/2007 Mike Smithson

Tory lead down to 5% but nearly 60% say Gord is doing badly A new YouGov poll reported in the Sunday Times this morning has, with changes on the last survey by the pollster nearly a fortnight ago CON 40% (-3): LAB 35% (+4): LD 15% (-1). There’s very little other information in the paper except that “six out of 10 people believe the prime minister is doing badly”. We don’t know when the poll was carried out or any…

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How much can you make from political betting?

29/12/2007 Editor

Guest slot by Peter the Punter Ok, 2007 is all but over and itâ€™s that time of year when all good punters cast a critical eye back over their records and ask themselves where it all went wrong. My own soul-searching takes very little time because itâ€™s all too obvious. My total profit from Political Betting came to approximately Â£10,000, which is about Â£12,000 more than I made from the horses and other forms of gambling. Since the time and…

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Will the winner be the one with the biggest war-chest?

29/12/2007 Editor

Is Iowa down to a battle of money? With just five days to go before the critical Iowa caucuses the heavyweight campaigns for the Democratic nominations are throwing everything at the state to ensure that their candidate comes out on top in the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House Race. ABC News has been reporting overnight how Obama is trying to totally dominate the TV screens on Wednesday evening – on the night before the caucuses. One…

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Was there insider trading on Brown’s election U-turn?

28/12/2007 Editor

Who were those who cashed in on the afternoon of October 6th? While going through some of the old threads during the key moments of 2007 I came across the following discussion, reproduced below, which got by-passed by the dramatic news of Gordon’s general election U-turn on the afternoon of October 6. For it suggests that a gambler or a group of gamblers who had inside information about the Prime Minister’s decision sought to turn what they knew into cash…

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How will Pakistan affect the White House race?

27/12/2007 Editor

Will McCain and Clinton be the main beneficiaries? With exactly one week to go before the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House race the big question this afternoon is how will such a global event impact on Iowa and New Hampshire – the first states to decide on the candidates? As the Politco site observes – “Bloody images of Pakistan in turmoil, which will dominate newspapers and TV news just as Iowa voters are making their final…

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What’s going to be the impact of this?

27/12/2007 Editor

A double blow for Brown from the Indy

27/12/2007 Editor

Defeat threatened on terror limits and John Rentoul says “it’s all over” On what must be the first “conventional” front page in a long time the Independent, the normally left-leaning paper, reports a ComRes survey of Labour MPs which suggests that the government is heading for a commons defeat if it presses ahead with plans to extend the limit on detention without trial to 42 days The survey found at least 38 Labour MPs would rebel against – four more…

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