How trading can reduce your betting exposure These are my current positions on Betfair’s Democratic nominee market and what, for me at least, is the best form of gambling, Spreadfair’s spread betting market. With the latter you can go in and out trading and, if you get it right, pocketing your profits even though the final outcomes might be nearly a year off. On Betfair I have now switched so that I come out a winner whatever the outcome without…
How the primaries have changed the betting The above charts show the dramatic betting price changes, expressed as implied probabilities, that we have seen in the Republican and Democratic nomination races in the past month as we have gone through the first phase of the primary and caucus process. The big change overnight has been in the GOP contest where for the first time we are getting some real clarity. It’s hard to see how Mike Huckabee can now get…
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How will Nevada impact on the nomination betting? A massive win in Nevada for Mitt Romney, the scale of which was not predicted by the polls, has seen his price for the GOP nomination tighten to 3.1/1 putting him in the second favourite slot behind John McCain. The RCP polling average was suggesting that the race would be much tighter and, indeed, one survey this week had the senior Senator from the neighbouring state of Arizona, John McCain, in the…
What happened when the First Lady snapped at the President It is almost exactly ten years ago that I had the most memorable experience of my life when, as part of a small party from Cambridge University, I visited Bill and Hillary in the Oval Office. Through the University’s New York director, John McCaffrey, the President had agreed to host a lecture at the White House by Professor Stephen Hawking and we were planing to use the event to get…
Yesterday the Guardian asked me to give my assessment of today’s crucial elections in Nevada and South Carolina – this is what I wrote. The Republican Race: There are two elections – the Caucuses in Nevada and the primary in South Carolina. There has been little interest in the former and the assumption on the betting markets is that this is sewn up for the Michigan winner, Mitt Romney, who has had reasonable leads in two of the last three…
All those who enjoying coming to the site, and not just those who post, will be most welcome at the fourth PBC party a week tonight. Once again it will be held at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. The date – Friday 25th January 2008, from 6pm until about 9.30pm, or when thrown out if sooner. There will be a cash bar and a £5 entry charge, payable on the door, as a contribution towards sandwiches…
The Commons seat spreads – where the serious punters go Reproduced above are this morning’s commons seats spreads from Sporting Index where you bet on how many seats the main parties are going to get at the next election. They show the Conservatives at almost their highest ever since the general election. There has only been one previous period, in late November, when the mid-point (the average of the BUY and SELL levels) has risen about the 300 mark. As…