The secret survey that shows Ken could be in trouble When on Tuesday Ken sought to counter the latest YouGov mayoral figures by revealing party private polling data he set off a disclosure process that has, for the first time I believe, allowed us to look at the full numbers from a Labour survey that was supposed to be secret. And with this election looking very tight a key factor will be how the second preferences split – will they…
Comfort-tmby luvnews Should she have avoided “calling for a pillow” for Obama”? The above thirty second snatch has probably been the most widely criticised part of Hillary’s performance in the debate overnight. It was as though she was trying to make herself look the victim. On the issue at stake, whether she was always asked the first question, commentators have noted that on at least three occasion she jumped into to answer a point without one of the moderators suggesting…
The MORI poll he reported is nearly three weeks old I have now got the fieldwork dates and some other details from the private MORI poll for Labour that Ken “pulled out of the hat” as news of the 5% deficit in the YouGov survey came out. The MORI fieldwork started getting on for three weeks ago, on February 8th and went on until the 12th. A sample of 808 Londoners was interviewed by telephone. The survey found on that…
Could Clinton’s sustained attacks impede Obama? The final debate ahead of the critical March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio has ended with Hillary not managing to make the knock-out blow that she needed to. My view was that she probably won on points – but only by a narrow margin. The questioning by MSNBC’s political team was much tougher than we have seen. At one point I thought that Hillary “had” her opponent when he was pressed about an…
Is the Mayor being hit by all bad publicity? A new YouGov poll for London ITV News has Ken fallen 5% behind Boris in the race for the London Mayoralty. These ae the shares compared with the last proper survey from the firm in December – JOHNSON 44%(nc): LIVINGSTONE 39%(-5): PADDICK 12%(+5) The YouGov boss, Peter Kellner has confirmed to me that the survey took place from Tuesday to Thursday of last week and involved a sample of 1,003. In…
Is this the woman who will join Obama on the ticket? Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in Hillary’s campaign in the next few days then in the middle of next week speculation will turn to who the junior senator from Illinois will choose to be his running mate. There has, of course, been talk that it should be Hillary herself and certainly that would please large sections of the party. But after the campaign that we have seen and her…
Why don’t Ken’s voters back him on the congestion charge? By far and away the biggest political betting event in the UK this year is the London Mayoral election on May 1st. Five million people will be able to vote and the outcome will set the scene for the coming general election. But as we’ve noted before – there has been almost no polling data on which to make predictions. We’ve had just one survey in 2008 and only 240…
Did Cameron benefit from the Auschwitz row exposure? A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent shows a three point move back to the Tories since last month. The shares are CON 41% (+3): LAB 30% (nc): LD 17% (nc) If the pollster was following its normal pattern then the fieldwork would have taken place from Friday until Sunday when one of the big political stories was the row of David Cameron’s Auschwitz trip press release. My theory, as regular…