Would an independent loss to the Tories be a lot less damaging? Four and a half years ago Tony Blair went to extraordinary lengths to ensure that Labour would have a big result to shout about in what were to be the final national elections before the 2005 general election. He desperately wanted a victory for his party and the London Mayoral winner of four years earlier, Ken Livingstone, was brought back into the fold. In 2000, of course, he…
What could the row mean for his future in the job? The issue that’s dominating the UK political news this Easter is the threatened revolt by Labour MPs, including ministers, over the the Embryo bill that would allow the creation of part-human, part-animal embryos for research. According to the Observer three Cabinet minsters – Ruth Kelly, Des Browne and Paul Murphy – are “struggling to accept” parts of the bill’s provisions while there are some reports suggesting that upto twelve…
The latest Gallup daily tracker showing the trend in the race for the Democratic nomination, just out, has that the front-runner and odds-on favourite, Barack Obama, is back in the lead following a difficult week when the news had been dominated by Pastor Wright. This is important because the key battle in the coming days and weeks is going to be convincing the super-delegates that his relationship with his pastor does not make him an electoral liability. A big development…
But should you be making a 75/1 insurance bet on Paddick? The chart, using betting prices expressed as implied probabilities, shows the dramatic changes there have been in the London Mayoral race betting over the past week. Last Saturday the Labour incumbent, Ken Livingstone, was the marginal odds-on favourite with his Tory challenger, Boris Johnson, not far behind. Then the came the national general election polls showing a huge move to the Tories in the aftermath of the budget. This…
A preview of 2008’s Local Elections (Part I) Most of the interest on May 1st will focus on the London Mayoralty. Elsewhere, however, there are important local elections taking place. All 36 Metropolitan Boroughs will see one third of their councillors elected. The 22 Welsh Unitary authorities will see all of their councillors come up for election. 4 District councils will have all-out elections, 5 will elect half their councillors, and 71 will elect one third. There are also elections…
As the chart, showing the Clinton-Obama fight in terms of the implied probabilities of odds on UK betting markets, illustrates the events of the past week have had an impact but not that much. A number of visitors have expressed surprise at my continuing view that Hillary is still in with a shout even though the pledged delegate totals are against her. Perhaps the best articulation of my nagging doubts about Obama’s chances comes from the US blogger who, for…
The current odds-in favourites in the two most active betting markets are Obama for the Democratic nomination and Boris for the London mayoralty. The former is at 0.4/1 and the latter at 0.68/1. I think that the prices are the wrong way round and that Boris has a substantially better chance of making it than Obama does. Of course with Boris everything depends on how Londoners vote on May 1st while with Obama the majority of state battles have taken…
How will the release of her documents change the race? After a very uncomfortable few days for Barack Obama the battle for the Democratic nomination has now moved on with the publication of thousands of documents from her White House years as first Lady from 1993 to 2001. These have been released under the freedom of information legislation and will be used to test her claims to “experience” and “being ready on Day One”. The ABC news report featured above,…