What can Hillary do about white women?

What can Hillary do about white women?

Are there signs that they are becoming less enthusiastic? If at the end of August in Denver Hillary Clinton is crowned as her party’s presidential nominee then there is one demographic segment she can thank the most – white women. Throughout the campaign the ex-first lady has consistently led amongst this group who, it will be recalled, first made their presence felt when they flocked to the polls in New Hampshire at the start of January and helped her pull…

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Double Carpet on Sunday

Double Carpet on Sunday

A new regular column focusing on the international scene Welcome to what’s planned to be a regular Sunday evening column, partly inspired by Sean Fear’s excellent Friday articles on UK politics. I can’t promise that this column will be quite as regular as Sean’s, but the plan is for it to come out fortnightly if possible and we’ll see how it goes. The “mission statement” for the column will be to focus primarily on international politics, outside the PB mainstays…

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The MORI trend turns to Boris

The MORI trend turns to Boris

What will the next YouGov poll show? The betting markets had this one right yesterday. Late on Saturday morning there was a big move back to Boris in the London Mayoral betting and there was speculation here that someone had got wind of some new polling. The Ipsos-MORI firm, which was showing 2% leads for Ken in the previous two of its polls to be published, is now reporting in the Observer that the Tory is 2% ahead amongst those…

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Tory YouGov lead back at 16%

Tory YouGov lead back at 16%

Cameron’s party hits 44% – the highest since the Thatcher years A new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories at 44% the second highest share in any poll since the Thatcher years. The headline with figures the changes on the last survey from the pollster a fortnight ago are:- CON 44%(+1),: LAB 28%(-1): LD 17%(nc). This poll equals that which Tony Blair got in his landslide victory in May 1997 and the margin is in excess of…

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Is a new mayoral poll about to come out?

Is a new mayoral poll about to come out?

Why the change in Boris and Ken prices? There’s been a sharp move to Boris during the past hour in the London Mayoral race betting. As at 12.25pm he was at 1.51 which he was last at before the Unison-sponsored Ipsos-MORI poll in Wednesday morning. A couple of people have emailed me to say that the Observer is carrying a poll tomorrow and the paper’s normal pollster is Ipsos-MORI. I don’t know the truth of this but have been following…

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Could Gordon be out before the general election?

Could Gordon be out before the general election?

Is 5/1 that he will a good value bet? Matthew Parris’s Saturday column in the Times is almost always a good read although his views on Gordon Brown have to be read in the context of an hostility that has continued for years. But this morning he raises an issue that I have been planning to cover for weeks – could Gordon be out before the general election? Parris concludes: “..Many political and journalistic reputations have been staked on taking…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Countdown to May 1st – The Unitaries and the Shadows A total of 338 Seats will be contested in 19 Unitary Authorities on May 1st. In addition, elections will be held for four new Shadow Unitary Authorities, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Northumberland, and Durham, which will replace the existing County and District Councils, next year. A total of 346 seats are being contested in these new authorities. Blackburn with Darwen, currently under No Overall Control, will remain that…

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Is YouGov still the form pollster?

Is YouGov still the form pollster?

Making sense of the different predictions Firstly a declaration of financial interest: As I reported on Wednesday I was underwhelmed by Boris in the Tuesday Newsnight debate and closed almost all my positions on him for the London mayoralty by 9am of that day, pocketed nearly £1000 from my spread bets, booked a holiday, and took out all the stake money I had on him with Betfair. The balance of my trading profits on the latter is split between Boris…

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