So Silvio is back….

So Silvio is back….

Andrea examines the results as Italy moves from Prodi II to Berlusconi III So Silvio is back. Last week-end’s Italian elections saw Berlusconi’s coalition winning by a convincing margin: 9.3% for the Senate and 9.2% for the Chamber of Deputies. The final result is at the high end of figures showed by polls 2 weeks ago. It also guarantees a comfortable majority for Berlusconi at the Senate. During the pre-election discussions, there was some debate on whether he would get…

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How did Gord become PM with this 06/07 polling baggage?

How did Gord become PM with this 06/07 polling baggage?

Was getting a coronation the political achievement of the decade? As another pollster, Populus, reports a double digit deficit for Labour let’s consider this morning the remarkable campaign a year ago that saw Gordon become his party’s leader and PM without having to face a contest. For in the year before the “handover” a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the party was already doing. The results…

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Now Populus reports a double digit Labour deficit

Now Populus reports a double digit Labour deficit

Are we now heading for a Conservative majority? As well as the Ken-Boris survey there’s also a Populus poll on national voting intentions in the Sunday Mirror. This records the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster nearly three weeks ago CON 40% (+1): LAB 30% (-3): LD 19% (+2) Looking at previous surveys from the firm on UKPollingreport these are the worst figures for Labour that we have ever seen. In February there was a…

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Ken moves ahead in non-BPC poll

Ken moves ahead in non-BPC poll

Will the pollster perform better than it did in Scotland? A new London survey tonight from a firm that is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council provides a big boost to Ken as he seeks to defend his mayoralty. The firm, MRUK, found first preference figures of Ken 45%: Boris 44%: Paddick 9%. After second preferences are taken into account Boris and Ken are on 50:50. The survey took place from April 7th to the 14th…

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London: The Pollsters vs The Punters vs PoliticsHome

London: The Pollsters vs The Punters vs PoliticsHome

Which is the best guide to the likely outcome? Just twelve days to go before more than five million Londoners get the chance to vote in an election that is being widely regarded as a proxy for the general election. Because it is in the capital and because of the massive national media coverage the winner of Britain’s single election will have an enormous impact on the overall political environment. The stakes are enormous: a Conservative win with Boris Johnson…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

The Welsh Local Elections Wales is seeing all-out local elections on May 1st. There are twenty two Welsh Unitary Authorities with 1,264 seats coming up for election. There are several curious features about Welsh local politics. Firstly, Labour doesn’t enjoy anything like the dominance in Wales that it enjoys at Parliamentary level. Currently it holds just eight of the authorities and does not control either Cardiff, or Swansea, Wales’ largest cities. Secondly, ratepayers, independents, and other non-party candidates remain very…

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Rest in Peace Gwyneth Dunwoody 1930-2008

Rest in Peace Gwyneth Dunwoody 1930-2008

Will this be a by election nightmare for Cameron? It is always sad that when a sitting MP dies the first thoughts of the political classes are on the up-coming by election – and I am sure that such a hardy campaigner as Gwyneth Dunwoody was the same. She was 77 when she died yesterday and holds the distinction of being the longest ever serving female MP. As her Wikipedia biography records she was first elected to the commons for…

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Is Adam Boulton right about non-registered voters?

Is Adam Boulton right about non-registered voters?

Will his latest figures really hurt Ken? One interesting aspect of the London mayoral race that has been raised by Sky’s Adam Boulton is the proportion of adults who have not registered to vote in parts of London. He noted: “I’m told that when official figures are published next week by London Elects, the quango running the election, they will reveal that over two million Londoners have not registered to vote on May 1. That still leaves around five million…

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